Torsten Persson, 19 September 2008

At the annual congress of the European Economic Association and the Econometric Society in Milan in August 2008, Torsten Persson, director of the Institute for International Economic Studies in Stockholm, delivered his Econometric Society presidential address on ‘State Capacity, Conflict and Development’ Afterwards, he spoke to Romesh Vaitilingam.about his research on these issues, preliminary findings of which suggest that rising commodity prices increase the chances of civil war breaking out in poor countries.

Kenneth Rogoff, Barbara Rossi, Yu-chin Chen, 08 September 2008

In a recent speech, Fed Chair Ben Bernanke highlighted the difficulty of obtaining a meaningful gauge for future commodity price movement, noting the inadequacy of forecasts based on commodity futures signals. Looking at exchange rates may be a promising alternative.

Joseph Francois, 01 August 2008

The WTO talks were as much a distraction as an opportunity. The agenda was aimed at a world that no longer exists. Negotiations of some form should and will resume: the questions are "where?" and "between whom?" Success will require a different game, with different rules and different players. This column considers the options.

Jeffrey Frankel, 29 July 2008

In CEPR Policy Insight No. 25, Jeffrey Frankel discusses the merits of a peg to the export price for countries specialized in the production of a mineral or agricultural commodity.

The Editors, 29 July 2008

This column introduces Jeffrey Frankel’s Policy Insight No. 25 explaining his proposal for countries to peg their currencies to their export prices. Such a peg adjusts to trade shocks and serves as a nominal anchor, so it may outperform current exchange rate regimes.

Guillermo Calvo, 20 June 2008

Here, one of the world’s leading macroeconomists argues that the explosion of commodity prices is the result of a very real global financial storm associated with excess liquidity in several non-G7 countries and nourished by the low interest rates set by G7 central banks. The commodity price explosion is a harbinger of future inflation.

Jeffrey Frankel, 29 May 2008

Low inventory levels might seem to belie the theory that soaring commodity prices are attributable to low interest rates. In this column, Jeffrey Frankel defends his argument, pointing to production decisions and cross-country comparisons.

Jeffrey Frankel, 25 March 2008

The standard story for high commodity prices is rapid growth by China, India and company. But world growth is slowing, while commodity prices still hit new highs. This column suggests that the key may be low real interest rates.

Tommaso Monacelli, 20 March 2008

Inflation is rising. This column identifies three sources of inflation and argues that it is very important for central banks to tame inflation now, before we face a vicious cycle of rising inflation and expected inflation.

Antonio Ciccone, Markus Brückner, 19 November 2007

Between 1945 and 1999, there were around 127 civil conflicts and at least 1000 battles. The authors of CEPR DP6568 examine whether civil wars are partly caused by low economic growth, and whether the effects are significantly weaker in democracies. The results point to an interaction between economic and democratic institutional causes of civil war.



CEPR Policy Research