Simon Wren-Lewis, 20 June 2018

Stephen Byrne, Jonathan Rice, 19 June 2018

While the effect of Brexit on trade between the UK and the remaining EU member states has received considerable attention, to date little work has considered the issue of non-tariff barriers. This column explores how increased documentary compliance and border delays will affect EU members’ exports to the UK. Time-sensitive goods are found to be most at risk of suffering from increases in non-tariff barriers. Based on current trade composition, Latvia, Ireland, and Denmark are the trading partners that will be most affected.

Jonathan Portes, 09 June 2018

Pascal Lamy, 06 June 2018

Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Tho Pham, Oleksandr Talavera, 02 June 2018

The rise of social media has profoundly affected how people acquire and process information. Using Twitter data on the Brexit referendum and the 2016 US presidential election, this column studies how social media bots shape public opinion and voting outcomes. Bots have a tangible effect on the tweeting activity of humans, but the degree of their influence depends on whether they provide information consistent with humans’ priors. The findings suggest that effect of bots was likely marginal, but possibly large enough to affect voting outcomes in the two elections.

Roger Farmer, 29 May 2018

Simon Wren-Lewis, 12 May 2018

Thomas Sampson, 10 April 2018

Simon Wren-Lewis, 28 May 2018

Miranda Xafa, 18 April 2018

The Brexit vote was a clear setback in the effort to integrate European capital markets. It slowed down the implementation of the Capital Markets Union agenda to avoid pre-empting the Brexit negotiations, and risks an inefficient break-up in the activities of clearing houses that deal in euro-denominated securities. This column, the second in a two-part series, argues that there is a strong case for the Capital Markets Union project to continue with the remaining EU27 members after Brexit, including stronger central oversight.

Swati Dhingra, Rebecca Freeman, Eleonora Mavroeidi, 30 March 2018

After Brexit, the UK will have to negotiate which provisions to include in its new arrangements, and a fundamental question is which provisions are most important in reducing non-tariff barriers to trade. This column uses a gravity model to show that trade agreements with deep provisions have the largest impact on domestic value added. The UK’s entry into a deep trade agreement with either the US or China/India that encompasses non-tariff liberalisation of services, investment, and competition can increase economic activity in industries that are key to its innovative activity.

Jonathan Portes, 05 April 2018

Much public and policy concern has focused on the distributional impacts of immigration – in particular, potential negative impacts on employment and wages for low-skilled workers. This column summarises evidence and draws conclusions from the now considerable literature on the impact of migration to the UK on the economy and labour market, including the potential economic impacts of Brexit-induced reductions in migration.

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This one-day conference will bring together researchers and policymakers working on the economic consequences of Brexit. We invite submissions of papers and expressions of interest in attending. We would particularly welcome papers providing empirical evidence on the effects of the Brexit vote on the UK economy and novel studies of the potential future consequences of Brexit.

The conference will take place on September 19 in London and will be hosted by the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics. It is part of a series of events funded by the ESRC-sponsored UK in a Changing Europe initiative. The conference is open to attendees who are not presenting papers.

Submissions, requests for funding from PhD students and expressions of interest in attending the conference should be sent to [email protected] by May 18, 2018. Preliminary drafts of papers are welcome.

Harry Garretsen, Janka I. Stoker, Dimitrios Soudis, Ron Martin, Jason Rentfrow, 25 February 2018

The outcome of the UK’s referendum on EU membership came as a shock to most academic and policy experts. This column uses an extensive dataset of personality traits combined with socioeconomic data to show how the clustering of personality traits contributes to an understanding of the regional dispersion of the Brexit vote. Openness appears to be the trait that matters most – modest changes in this openness could actually have swung the vote across UK districts.

Andrés Rodríguez-Pose, 06 February 2018

Persistent poverty, economic decay and lack of opportunities cause discontent in declining regions, while policymakers reason that successful agglomeration economies drive economic dynamism, and that regeneration has failed. This column argues that this disconnect has led many of these ‘places that don’t matter’ to revolt in a wave of political populism with strong territorial, rather than social, foundations. Better territorial development policies are needed that tap potential and provide opportunities to those people living in the places that ‘don’t matter’.

Wen Chen, Bart Los, Philip McCann, Raquel Ortega-Argiles , Mark Thissen, Frank van Oort, 19 December 2017

Analyses of the impact of various types of Brexit at the national level hide a lot of regional economic heterogeneity. This column deploys a new interregional dataset to quantify the shares of regional labour income that are exposed to the implications of Brexit for trade, taking into account the indirect effects of supply chain relations. The results show that much more is at stake for UK regions than for the rest of the EU, with the exception of Ireland.

Giancarlo Corsetti, Meredith Crowley, Oliver Exton, Lu Han, 13 December 2017

As the recent UK Parliament Select Committee hearing revealed, there is a dearth of analysis of the sector-level risk to exports of a ‘no deal’ Brexit scenario. This column presents an analysis by sector and product, and delivers both good and bad news. In a scenario where trade reverts to WTO rules, the good news is that one-third of UK exports to the EU will remain tariff-free. The bad news is that one-quarter of exports will face high tariffs and/or the risk of restrictive quotas or antidumping duties.

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