Holger Breinlich, Elsa Leromain, Dennis Novy, Thomas Sampson, Ahmed Usman, 10 October 2018

How did the stock market react to the Brexit referendum of June 2016? This column shows that initial stock price movements on the day after the Leave vote were driven by fears of an economic slowdown in the UK and by a sharp devaluation of the pound. Later movements following two speeches by Theresa May in October 2016 and January 2017 were more closely correlated with potential future changes to tariffs and non-tariff barriers on UK-EU trade. This indicates that these speeches led investors to update their assessment of the likelihood of a hard Brexit.

Jonathan Portes, 04 October 2018

A report by the UK Government’s independent Migration Advisory Committee draws on new research on the impact of immigration to the UK, particularly on migration, training, and the public finances. This column presents some of the findings from the report.

Ronald Davies, Joseph Francois, 01 October 2018

With increasing frustration over the situation as ‘Brexit Day’ approaches, some political pundits are suggesting that an Irish exit from the EU would benefit Ireland. This column assesses the macroeconomic impact of a range of scenarios and argues that while any version of Brexit, with or without Irexit, worsens the Irish economic situation relative to the status quo, economically speaking the best option for Ireland is to stay within the fold of the EU while hoping for and working towards the best in terms of post-Brexit UK economic integration with Europe.

Lubos Pastor, Pietro Veronesi, 28 September 2018

The vote for Brexit and the election of protectionist Donald Trump to the US presidency – two momentous markers of the ongoing pushback against globalisation – led some to question the rationality of voters. This column presents a framework that demonstrates how the populist backlash against globalisation is actually a rational voter response when the economy is strong and inequality is high. It highlights the fragility of globalisation in a democratic society that values equality.

Ronald Davies, Zuzanna Studnicka, 26 September 2018

Stock market returns provide a useful way of measuring investor expectations. The column uses stock return data following the Brexit referendum to show a persistent negative shift in sentiment towards multinationals with at-risk global value chains. In particular, even compared to others in the same industry, firms with a UK or EU focus underperform. This suggests the potential for targeted support policies.

Meredith Crowley, 03 September 2018

Meredith Crowley, International Trade Economist at the University of Cambridge, looks at the US response to Brexit.

Victor Ginsburgh, Juan Moreno-Ternero, Shlomo Weber, 26 August 2018

After Brexit, English can no longer retain its status as one of the EU's official or working languages. This column uses data on languages spoken in the EU to show that post-Brexit, German and French would become dominant. Efforts to preserve English as an official language of EU institutions, which would require a unanimous vote among members, are unlikely to succeed. This may be problematic for certain European countries in which English is a more widely spoken second language than German or French.

Rachel Lurie, Ashoka Mody, 22 August 2018

Michael Burda, 23 August 2018

Professor Michael C. Burda of the Humboldt University of Berlin discusses the German opinion on Britain's decision to leave the EU. 

Anand Menon, Jonathan Portes, 09 August 2018

Thierry Mayer, Vincent Vicard, Soledad Zignago, 02 August 2018

Sixty years after the Treaty of Rome came into force, doubts about the benefits of trade openness are increasing among the general public and policymakers, with Brexit and calls from many governments for a reversal of key integration agreements painting a bleak picture of what may come next. This column revisits the gains EU members have reaped from trade integration since 1957 and what would be the costs of going backwards. The results suggest that the Single Market has increased trade between EU members by 109% on average for goods, with associated welfare gains reaching 4.4% for the average European country.

Dennis Novy, 27 July 2018

When President Trump recently spoke of his hope for "a great bilateral trade agreement” with the UK after Brexit, what did he really mean? Dennis Novy of the University of Warwick describes what these political good intentions may look like in reality, the problems that both sides will have to solve to agree a UK-US deal, and the factors that might derail any agreement.

Simon Wren-Lewis, 20 July 2018

Simon Wren-Lewis, 10 July 2018

Simon Wren-Lewis, 05 July 2018

Simon Wren-Lewis, 29 June 2018

Simon Wren-Lewis, 27 June 2018

Swati Dhingra, Karl Whelan, Luc Frieden, 29 June 2018

2 years on from the UK’s referendum vote to leave the EU, substantial questions about the path to Brexit remain. In this special edition of Vox Talks, Tim Phillips talks to Swati Dhingra, Karl Whelan, and Luc Frieden about how the process of Brexit negotiation is itself impacting UK households already, from food price inflation to bilateral trade relations across Europe. The data suggests these effects are not transitory, but will persist beyond the current climate of policy uncertainty.

Pages

Events

CEPR Policy Research