Lewis Dijkstra, Hugo Poelman, Andrés Rodríguez-Pose, 07 December 2019

Support for Eurosceptic parties and the rise of populism threaten not only European integration, but peace and prosperity on the continent more broadly. Rather than attributing their rise to the individual characteristics of voters – such as age or income – this column takes a different approach. Using results from recent legislative elections to map the geography of EU discontent, it finds that purely geographical factors – chiefly, long-term economic and industrial decline – are the fundamental drivers of anti-European voting.

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SUERF and De Nederlandsche Bank Conference: Forging a new future between the UK and the EU

Date: Wednesday, 8 January 2020
Venue: De Nederlandsche Bank, Westeinde 1, Amsterdam

Brexit marks an unprecedented event in European history and while the United Kingdom has often been portrayed as holding back Europe, the reality is, that in several key areas, the UK has been on the forefront, notably pushing for deregulation, flexibility and deeper market integration. Moreover, when it comes to finance, London has a long history as Europe’s main financial centre.

This conference aims to bring together thought leaders from policy making, academia and industry to discuss the economic implications of some of the challenges uncovered by Brexit and other recent events on both sides of the Channel.

The keynote speakers are Luis de Guindos (ECB), David Miles (Imperial College Business School), Andy Haldane (Bank of England) and Dirk Schoenmaker(RSM, Erasmus University Rotterdam).

Confirmed speakers: Iain Begg, London School of Economics; Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, Société Générale; Zsolt Darvas, Bruegel; Aerdt Houben, De Nederlandsche Bank; Heather Gibson, Bank of Greece; Charles Goodhart, LSE I SUERF Fellow; Joaquim Oliveira Martins, OECD; Richard Portes, London Business School; Anthony Venables, Oxford University; Guntram Wolff, Bruegel; Phil Wooldridge, BIS.

More information about the conference and registration can be found at www.suerf.org/amsterdam2020

Mario Monti, 13 November 2019

The Anglo-Saxons have been admired for their sense of rationality. However Mario Monti talks about recent political events that completely changed the situation. This video was recorded at the "10 years after the crisis" conference held in London, on 22 September 2017.

Céline Carrère, Anja Grujovic, Frédéric Robert-Nicoud, 13 November 2019

Unemployment is absent from most quantitative trade models in the academic literature. Using a trade model that also includes unemployment and data between 2001 and 2008, this column shows that repealing NAFTA and the imposition of 20% bilateral tariffs between the US and Mexico in all sectors would reduce welfare by 0.31% in the US and by 6.6% in Mexico. An US increase of trade barriers on motor vehicles against imports from all countries bar Mexico and Canada would lead to a decrease in long-run welfare and employment in both Mexico and the US as well as in major car-producing countries. 

Barry Eichengreen, 29 October 2019

Explanations for variants of populism are typically framed as a contest between culture and economics. This column, part of a Vox debate on the subject, looks at the arguments for both and uses data from the British Election Study surveys to show that populism, and Brexit in particular, is as much about economics as it is about culture and identity. Populism rooted in economics can be addressed with policies that enhance socioeconomic mobility, reduce income disparities, increase economic security, and help left-behind places. It is less clear how to address authoritarian, xenophobic populism rooted in cultural identity concerns.

Thorsten Beck, 11 October 2019

Stefania Garetto, Lindsay Oldenski, Natalia Ramondo, 08 October 2019

Multinational enterprises play an important role in coordinating production around the globe. This column presents a dynamic quantitative model of multinational enterprise expansion that can be used to analyse the effects of policies that affect the cost of the operations of such firms. It uses this model to estaimte the impact of potential implementations of Brexit.

Rui Costa, Swati Dhingra, Stephen Machin, 01 October 2019

Some commentators argue that globalisation is systematically connected to the real-wage and productivity stagnation seen across the developed world. This column analyses the relationship between international trade and worker outcomes in the immediate aftermath of the Brexit referendum, when the value of the sterling fell massively against other nations’ currencies. It finds that the rise in import costs from the sterling depreciation hurt wages and training. This relative decline in real earnings of workers has reinforced pre-existing real-wage stagnation; UK workers have not fared well since the referendum price rise.

Nicholas Bloom, Philip Bunn, Scarlet Chen, Paul Mizen, Pawel Smietanka, 25 September 2019

The Decision Maker Panel, a monthly survey of CFOs from around 3,000 UK businesses, provides data on the uncertainty created by the Brexit process and the effect that is having on British businesses. This column summarises the latest results up until end August 2019, which reveal a broad-based rise in the proportion of respondents reporting that Brexit was one of their top three sources of uncertainty in recent months to close to the highest level since the EU referendum.  That uncertainty is also expected to be more persistent than previously thought.

Stephanie Bergbauer, Jean-Francois Jamet, Hanni Schölermann, Livio Stracca, Carina Stubenrauch, 20 September 2019

Recent successes of populist movements in Europe might seem to reflect eroded trust in the EU’s institutions. This column asks what global lessons can be drawn from recent research on Euroscepticism at the ECB and elsewhere. It argues that taking citizens’ concerns seriously and addressing salient issues, building on a sense of togetherness, and caring about public trust should inspire a course of action at the global level. Insufficient progress along these dimensions has played a key role not only in Brexit, but also in the backlash against the multilateral world order underpinning globalisation.

Nicholas Bloom, Philip Bunn, Scarlet Chen, Paul Mizen, Pawel Smietanka, Gregory Thwaites, 04 September 2019

The UK’s decision to leave the EU in the June 2016 referendum was a largely unexpected event that has generated a large, broad, and long-lasting increase in uncertainty. It has also affected some firms more than others depending on the strength of their links to Continental Europe. This column exploits these features and uses a major new survey of UK firms to show that the anticipation of Brexit has already made its mark on the UK economy. It has gradually reduced investment by about 11% and decreased productivity by about 2% to 5% over the three years since the referendum.

Giancarlo Corsetti, Meredith A. Crowley, Lu Han, 26 August 2019

An immediate impact of the Brexit referendum in 2016 was the large, rapid depreciation of the sterling against all other currencies.The weak pound did not boost UK export volumes, but less clear is whether UK firms lowered their export prices in line with the weaker pound. This column shows that the UK export price response to depreciation depends on the currency in which UK firms invoice their cross-border transactions. Firms invoicing in sterling gained competitiveness by passing the sterling’s weakness through to prices, unlike firms invoicing in vehicle or destination currencies,which adjusted their mark-ups.

Holger Breinlich, Dennis Novy, 16 August 2019

As Brexit nears (again), are British firms choosing to invest in the UK or in other European markets? Are European firms investing in the UK to preserve access to its markets? And has "global Britain" got off the drawing board yet? Holger Breinlich and Dennis Novy lead Tim Phillips through the numbers.

Christopher Tyson, 07 August 2019

The Brexit deliberations in the House of Commons have been chaotic, protracted, and inconclusive, but the impasse cannot last forever. This column outlines a model of parliamentary preferences, calibrated to the profiles of members on the meaningful and indicative votes, that can be used to analyse the Brexit ‘endgame’ in a reasoned manner.

Simon Wren-Lewis, 11 July 2019

Swati Dhingra, 10 July 2019

Swati Dhingra asks what Brexit tells us about the contribution of globalisation to the productivity and wage stagnation we see across the developed world.

Matthew Bevington, Jonathan Portes, 27 June 2019

Three years on from the referendum, it seems like a good time to take stock of whether the Brexit process so far has been good or bad for the UK, and its likely future impacts. This column does so based on four tests covering the economy, fairness, openness, and control. While the apocalyptic predictions of the Remain campaign have failed to materialise, the economic damage has nevertheless been significant. And although the UK may end up with considerably more control over a range of policies – trade, regulation, and migration – than at present, the difficult issue remains of what future governments will do to address the underlying discontent that, at least in part, drove the Brexit vote.

Thomas Maissen, Ernst-Ludwig von Thadden, 21 June 2019

Pascal Lamy, 14 June 2019

Karl Aiginger, 20 April 2019

Populism represents a challenge to liberal democracy, pluralism, human rights, and the exchange of ideas. This column examines the features and drivers of populism, as well as the potential strategic response by the EU and its member states. This includes a vision for Europe to become the role model for high-income societies providing well-being, lower unemployment, and less inequality, and a leader in decarbonisation and public sector management.

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