Simon Wren-Lewis, 11 July 2019

Swati Dhingra, 10 July 2019

Swati Dhingra asks what Brexit tells us about the contribution of globalisation to the productivity and wage stagnation we see across the developed world.

Matthew Bevington, Jonathan Portes, 27 June 2019

Three years on from the referendum, it seems like a good time to take stock of whether the Brexit process so far has been good or bad for the UK, and its likely future impacts. This column does so based on four tests covering the economy, fairness, openness, and control. While the apocalyptic predictions of the Remain campaign have failed to materialise, the economic damage has nevertheless been significant. And although the UK may end up with considerably more control over a range of policies – trade, regulation, and migration – than at present, the difficult issue remains of what future governments will do to address the underlying discontent that, at least in part, drove the Brexit vote.

Thomas Maissen, Ernst-Ludwig von Thadden, 21 June 2019

Pascal Lamy, 14 June 2019

Karl Aiginger, 20 April 2019

Populism represents a challenge to liberal democracy, pluralism, human rights, and the exchange of ideas. This column examines the features and drivers of populism, as well as the potential strategic response by the EU and its member states. This includes a vision for Europe to become the role model for high-income societies providing well-being, lower unemployment, and less inequality, and a leader in decarbonisation and public sector management.

David Warsh, 29 March 2019

Rita Cappariello, Michele Mancini, Filippo Vergara Caffarelli, 22 March 2019

EU and the UK production networks are highly integrated, and Brexit poses a threat to supply and demand linkages between the two economies. This column describes how the effect of tariffs will be magnified due to back-and-forth trade across the Channel. This will increase production costs in the UK and, to a lesser extent, in the EU.

Fabrizio Marongiu Buonaiuti, Filippo Vergara Caffarelli, 20 February 2019

The border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland has become a central issue in the Brexit negotiations between the UK and the EU. This column examines the proposals put forward by the two negotiating parties, and suggests two remedies that could make the European Commission’s initial ‘backstop’ proposal, whereby Northern Ireland would remain in the European Customs Union while the rest of the UK would be excluded from it, acceptable to the UK.  

Holger Breinlich, Elsa Leromain, Dennis Novy, Thomas Sampson, 12 February 2019

Media reports suggest that some UK firms have started to move production abroad in anticipation of Brexit. Using data on announcements of new foreign investment transactions, this column reports evidence that the Brexit vote has led to a 12% increase in the number of new investments made by UK firms in EU27 countries. At the same time, new investments in the UK from the EU27 have declined by 11%. The results are consistent with the idea that UK firms are offshoring production to the EU27 because they expect Brexit to increase barriers to trade and migration, making the UK a less attractive place to invest and create jobs. 

Meredith A. Crowley, 01 February 2019

Meredith Crowley, International Trade Economist at the University of Cambridge, looks at the US response to Brexit.

Meredith A. Crowley, Oliver Exton, Lu Han, 21 January 2019

Uncertainty over the future of the world trading system is at its highest since the introduction of GATT in 1947. The US-China trade war and suggestions that President Trump intends to withdraw the US from the WTO have significantly raised uncertainty in the global economy. Meanwhile, uncertainty over the future of the UK-EU trading relationship spiked on 15 January when the UK parliament overwhelmingly rejected the negotiated terms of the UK’s withdrawal from the EU. This column documents that an earlier period of heightened trade policy uncertainty for the UK – the period following the Brexit referendum in June 2016 – depressed the UK’s international trading activity, with some UK businesses choosing to not enter the EU market while others chose to exit. 

Simon Wren-Lewis, 16 January 2019

Nicholas Crafts, 15 January 2019

Brexit in 2019 and the banking crisis in 2007 to 2009 are usually seen as unrelated events. This column argues that they are in fact closely connected. The austerity policies embarked on in response to the fiscal damage resulting from the banking crisis triggered the protest votes of left-behind voters, which at the margin allowed Leave to win the referendum vote. The implication is that the economic costs of the banking crisis are much larger than is usually supposed.

Toke Aidt, Jagjit Chadha, Hamid Sabourian, 11 January 2019

Unanimous agreement on the UK’s Brexit question is clearly not going to be achievable. But as this column argues, using a sequential voting system, it is within reach to structure the democratic process so that a voting procedure is fair to all views and the outcome is preferred by a majority to any other alternatives.

Dennis Snower, Rolf Langhammer, 07 January 2019

David Comerford, Sevi Rodriguez Mora, 04 January 2019

Populists in Europe are contesting the perceived benefits of economic integration between countries. This column uses data on trade frictions to estimate the long-run impact of trade frictions on GDP if countries in Europe were to be more or less integrated. Negative between-country impacts, such as from Brexit or an EU collapse, imply a GDP reduction of between 1-3%. The potential trade benefits of a 'United States of Europe', on the other hand, may be an order of magnitude greater for its members.

John Van Reenen, 07 December 2018

Hugo Rojas-Romagosa, Johannes Bollen, 07 December 2018

Intra-EU migration stocks more than doubled between 1960 and 2015, with the EU's principle of free movement of people seen as one of the main drivers. The column shows that free movement on average increased the stock of intra-EU migrants by 28%, representing around one quarter of total intra-EU migration during this period. The free movement of people has had a substantial impact on migration originating from both old and new member states, with the vast majority of migrants going to the old member states. 

Pages

Events

CEPR Policy Research