Stephen Cecchetti, Kim Schoenholtz, 15 August 2016

The UK’s Brexit referendum is providing us with the first significant test of the new regulatory system. This column asks whether banks have sufficient capital and liquidity to withstand the ‘shock’. Unless the global financial system as a whole is well capitalised, it remains only as strong as its weakest link.  And while the UK authorities have done a reasonable job of strengthening their banks and financial system, a number of large European banks are seriously undercapitalised.  

Ian Wooton, 13 August 2016

Citizens of the UK voted to leave the EU, but voters in Scotland and Northern Ireland expressed a strong wish to remain. Taking a trade perspective, this chapter argues that resolving border issues will be central to finding a Brexit outcome that preserves the UK in its present form. Continued membership of the EEA – with Scotland either a part of the same country or a fellow, independent member – would be the best outcome for the UK. 

Patrick Honohan, John FitzGerald, 12 August 2016

As the Irish economy is deeply integrated with the UK’s economy, Brexit poses especially severe challenges for Ireland. This column considers a future in which the legal basis for the UK’s economic relations with the EU, and hence with Ireland, is thrown into doubt. A UK withdrawal from the Single Market would raise questions relating to trade ‘re-diversion’, foreign direct investment, the Irish peace agreement, and assured access to British natural gas supplies.

Patrick Honohan, 12 August 2016

How can the Irish economy respond to being torn between two neighbours by Brexit? Bob Denham (Econ Films) interviews Patrick Honohan (Trinity College Dublin) on what economic connections do and don’t need to be unpicked, from labour markets to managing the border. 

Wouter den Haan, Martin Ellison, Ethan Ilzetzki, Michael McMahon, Ricardo Reis, 12 August 2016

The outcome of the UK’s referendum on EU membership has prompted much soul-searching in the economics profession, which was nearly unanimous in anticipating negative economic consequences from a vote for Brexit. This column presents the July 2016 Centre for Macroeconomics survey of experts, which asked for views on the role played by economic arguments in the referendum outcome, and whether institutional change is needed in the way that the findings of academic economic research – and the views of the profession as a whole – are communicated. While opinions are divided, many of the respondents who do not advocate institutional change still see considerable problems in the relationship of the academic macroeconomic community with policymakers and the public at large.

Jonathan Portes, 11 August 2016

Free movement of workers within the EU is an essential principle of the EU. In this video, Jonathan Portes discusses the impact of Brexit on UK immigration. This video is part of the “Econ after Brexit” series organised by CEPR and was recorded on 14 July 2016.

Jonathan Portes, 11 August 2016

Immigration was a major factor – perhaps the major factor – in the Brexit vote. This column asks what the result of the referendum means for the UK’s immigration policy. It looks likely that the UK’s negotiating position may coalesce around an ‘EEA minus’ arrangement. While free movement would not continue as now, this would not imply moving to a system that gives effectively equal treatment to EU and non-EU nationals; there would still be a considerable degree of preference for the former. The negotiations would likely be legally, economically, and politically complex, but this does not mean that it is not worth trying.

Michael McMahon, 10 August 2016

The UK’s membership of the EU has been a key factor behind the City of London’s emergence as a leading global financial centre. This column looks at the implications of Brexit for the City. While it is unlikely that many banks or other financial institutions will simply up and leave in the coming months, their expansion and hiring decisions may lean toward the remaining EU member states for some of their operations. And unless the politicians conducting the Brexit negotiations do their utmost to limit the damage, the loss of passporting rights is likely to have a significant negative impact on the UK financial sector.

Patricia Jackson, 08 August 2016

Would losing passporting really be a crisis for the City? Or could the finance sector find a way around newly-imposed restrictions? Bob Denham (Econ Films) asks Patricia Jackson (Atom, Ernst & Young) about the attractiveness of London, the likelihood of a mass exodus and the future of British finance.

Patricia Jackson, 09 August 2016

The Brexit vote has created particular uncertainty for London, the EU’s largest financial centre. This column looks at the issues facing the UK’s banking sector in the wake of the referendum: the right to conduct cross-border activity in the EU in future, the impact on flexible recruitment in London, the possibility of diverging UK and EU regulation, and the effect on bank profitability more widely across Europe.

Jim Rollo, L Alan Winters, 09 August 2016

For over four decades, the EU has managed most international trade policy on behalf of the UK. After Brexit, the UK government will have to reconstitute trade links with EU, with third nations while disentangling the UK from the commitments that the EU made on its behalf in the WTO. This chapter suggests some strategies for the UK government to follow in reconstituting its trade policy. The watch words should be simplicity and cooperation. Maintaining the goodwill of trading partners will be a very high diplomatic priority. 

Nicholas Crafts, 08 August 2016

Joining the EU raised the level of UK real GDP significantly. This column suggests that leaving the EU will very probably have a negative effect on UK GDP, but history does not tell us how strong this effect will be. However, history does suggest that the notion that there will be a faster rate of long-run trend growth facilitated by Brexit is not persuasive. The obstacles to better supply-side policy are, as ever, to be found in Westminster not in Brussels.

Simon Evenett, 08 August 2016

The UK must now formulate and execute an independent trade policy for the first time in over 40 years. This column summarises the catalogue of failure that has been the governance of the world trading system in the 21st century, and proposes Ten Commandments to guide UK trade ministers in the forthcoming negotiations.

Jim Rollo, 08 August 2016

Trade is more related to services than it is to goods. In this video, Jim Rollo discusses the impact of Brexit on UK's regulations. This video is part of the “Econ after Brexit” series organised by CEPR and was recorded on 14 July 2016.

Kevin O'Rourke, 07 August 2016

After the Brexit vote, it is obvious to many that globalisation in general, and European integration in particular, can leave people behind – and that ignoring this for long enough can have severe political consequences. This column argues that this fact has long been obvious. As the historical record demonstrates plainly and repeatedly, too much market and too little state invites a backlash. Markets and states are political complements, not substitutes

Swati Dhingra, Thomas Sampson, 06 August 2016

Several models exist for the UK's relationship with the EU following Brexit. This column argues that from an economic perspective, joining the European Economic Area and retaining access to the Single Market is the best available option. However, given the importance the new UK government – and at least part of the UK public – attaches to imposing controls on immigration from the EU, this option may not be politically viable. The question the UK must address as it debates the aftermath of Brexit is whether the costs of the alternative are a price worth paying.

Diane Coyle, 05 August 2016

How much was Brexit a result of the UK’s industrialised regions losing out from globalisation? Bob Denham (Econ Films) talks to Diane Coyle (University of Manchester) to discuss the decimation of communities in the late 80s and early 90s, as well as the failure of policy-makers to fix this ever since.

Diane Coyle, 05 August 2016

The UK's "Leave" vote could be seen as a vote against globalisation and its uneven impact on different parts of the country, rather than a vote specifically against the EU. The proportions voting for Leave were higher in the Midlands and North of England, where deindustrialisation struck hardest and where average incomes have stagnated. London, the UK's only truly global city, saw growth and a high share of Remain voters. This column argues that the new Conservative administration, swept in by the Brexit vote, should reinforce the very recent policy emphasis on economic growth outside global London and its hinterland.

Nauro Campos, 04 August 2016

On 23 June 2016, 52% of British voters decided the UK should leave the European Union, in a decision that went against the advice of most economists. This column assesses the quality of that advice, and argues that while gaps in knowledge may have hindered forecasts, Brexit can essentially be put down to three things: an unnecessary manifesto pledge by David Cameron, a lack of engagement by the City in the Remain campaign, and the pro-Brexit stance of some of the UK's major newspapers. 

David Miles, 03 August 2016

Is labour productivity the most important factor in the UK’s economy post-Brexit? And did economists really have a mostly unanimous voice during the EU referendum? Bob Denham (Econ Films) talks to David Miles (Imperial College London, former MPC) about the rationality of voting to leave and whether freedom of movement really is politically fundamental to the Single Market.

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