Nicholas Crafts, 01 August 2016

Becoming a member of the EU had positive effects on UK’s economy. In this video, Nick Crafts suggests that leaving the EU will very probably have a negative effect on UK GDP, but history does not tell us how strong this effect will be. This video is part of the “Econ after Brexit” series organised by CEPR and was recorded on 14 July 2016.

Richard Baldwin, 27 November 2018

The 23 June 2016 Brexit vote saw British voters reject membership in the European Union. This column, which was first published in August 2016, introduces a VoxEU eBook containing 19 essays written by leading economists on a wide array of topics and from a broad range of perspectives. 

Swati Dhingra, 29 July 2016

What will the arrangement with the EU be? In this video, Swati Dhingra discusses introducing a temporary Norway-like deal. This video is part of the “Econ after Brexit” series organised by CEPR and was recorded on 14 July 2016.

Jon Danielsson, 27 July 2016

Passporting, the right for the UK banking sector to carry out cross-border activity in the EU, is threatened by the UK's decision to leave the EU. In this video, Jon Danielsson discusses the options available to the UK regarding passporting. This video is part of the “Econ after Brexit” series organised by CEPR and was recorded on 14 July 2016.

Carl Emmerson, 25 July 2016

In this video, Carl Emmerson argues that the amount of trade and the degree of access to the European Single Market will determine future taxation policies. This video is part of the “Econ after Brexit” series organised by CEPR and was recorded on 13 July 2016.

David Vines, 15 July 2016

Whatever happens as a result of the UK’s referendum on EU membership, those in British politics, and in the British Civil Service, now face an enormous task. This column suggests how their hard work might actually lead to an outcome in which the UK remains a member of the EU. It describes a four-part action plan for those who would like to see this possibility kept open.

Alisdair McKay, Ricardo Reis, 14 July 2016

Brexit has raised the possibility of a recession on both sides of the Atlantic. Unable to use traditional remedies like monetary or fiscal policy stimulus, policymakers may consider automatic fiscal stabilisers. This column examines the impact of automatic stabilisers through social insurance on the business cycle, and how its impact can be used to mitigate recession. Unemployment insurance or food stamps would be better than progressive taxes at stimulating aggregate demand. The main economic channels policymakers must consider are those related to risk and precautionary savings. 

Richard Baldwin, 12 July 2016

The UK’s referendum on membership of the European Union is now history. But looking forward, it is useful to see how economists entered the debate. This column covers the highlights of VoxEU’s pre-Brexit efforts to disseminate research findings to a wider audience. It is, in a sense, a ‘playlist’ of pre-referendum columns and Vox Videos.

Wolfgang Keller, Hâle Utar, 05 July 2016

Recent shifts in political sentiment regarding EU membership have been caused in part by a growing hostility towards globalisation. This column uses Danish evidence to analyse whether globalisation causes a polarisation of jobs in developed countries, and in particular whether it causes a loss of middle-income jobs. Rising import competition can increase income inequality, but it also accounts for a substantial part of all high-wage employment gains. The task for policymakers is to make these gains felt by the majority of citizens.

Lubos Pastor, 04 July 2016

Britain voted for Brexit, but many seek ways to avoid it. This draws comparison with the events of almost exactly a year ago when the Greek government ignored the outcome of the Greek bailout referendum. This column argues that the Greek government hoped the result would crash the EU’s stock markets and thus strengthen its bargaining power. When this failed to materialise, the government ignored the plebiscite and signed the bailout extension. In the Brexit case, the observed market drops do not qualify as a collapse and so the referendum’s outcome is likely to be implemented.

Barry Eichengreen, Poonam Gupta, Anderson Ospino, 04 July 2016

The surprise outcome of the UK’s EU membership referendum is in some ways analogous to the ‘Taper Tantrum’ (the correction in financial markets following Ben Bernanke’s May 2013 suggestion that the US central bank was contemplating reducing its rate of security purchases). This column looks at whether the Brexit Surprise has had analogous effects on emerging markets. Emerging economies felt a strong negative impact that was larger and more widespread than in the case of the Taper Tantrum. Where the Taper Tantrum was mainly a financial shock, the Brexit Surprise is evidently perceived as having real as well as financial consequences.

Resiliency Authors, 25 June 2016

Britain voted to leave the EU. This is terrible news for the UK, but it is also bad news for the Eurozone. Brexit opens the door to all sorts of shocks, and dangerous political snowball effects. Now is the time to shore up the Eurozone’s resiliency. The situation is not yet dire, but prompt action is needed. This VoxEU column – which is signed by a wide range of leading economists – identifies what needs to be done soon, and what should also be done but can probably wait if markets are patient. 

Jon Danielsson, Robert Macrae, Jean-Pierre Zigrand, 24 June 2016

Brexit creates new opportunities and new risks for the British and EU financial markets. Both could benefit, but a more likely outcome is a fall in the quality of financial regulations, more inefficiency, more protectionism, and more systemic risk.

Richard Baldwin, 30 March 2016

During the Royal Economic Society’s Annual Conference on 22 March 2016, four panelists discussed the political and economic costs of Brexit. In this video, Richard Baldwin argues that Brexiteers hoping to regain control over their economic policy still think of trade as it was in the 20th century, when goods were made in one place and sold in another. We are not in that world anymore. Domestic political pressures would lead the UK to adopt the 'Norway option' where it would have to obey EU regulations and pay to the EU budget, all without a formal say in the shape of those regulations.

Anatole Kaletsky, 22 June 2016

If the UK leaves the EU, what will happen to the UK economy? In this video, Anatole Kaletsky argues that Brexit would be economic suicide, or at least self-harm. A trade agreement that grants access to the Single Market implies conceding political sovereignty, contributing to the EU budget, and free movement of labour. This video was recorded during the “Economics of the UK’s EU Membership” conference organised by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research in February 2016 and held in London.

László Kóczy, 20 June 2016

Much of the discussion about Brexit has focused on the UK and has ignored the another party – the European Union. This column examines how the UK leaving the EU would affect the distribution of power among the remaining member states. The larger members such as France and Germany would likely benefit directly from Brexit, at least in terms of power.

Karl Whelan, 20 June 2016

A large amount of business done in the City is linked to the UK’s membership of the EU. In this video, Karl Whelan discusses the impact of Brexit for the UK’s financial sector. He also argues that leaving the EU would take away the UK’s voice in shaping future legislation, which it would nonetheless have to follow in order to retain access to the Single Market. This video was recorded during the “Economics of the UK’s EU Membership” conference organised by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research in February 2016 and held in London.

Wouter den Haan, Martin Ellison, Ethan Ilzetzki, Michael McMahon, Ricardo Reis, 20 June 2016

This week’s UK referendum on EU membership is likely to have both short- and long-term effects on the country’s financial sector. This column, which reports the views of panel members in the monthly Centre for Macroeconomics survey, finds that almost all think that a vote for Brexit would lead to a significant disruption to financial markets and asset prices for several months, putting the Bank of England on high alert. On top of the risk of a financial crisis in the near future, an unusually strong majority agrees that there would be substantial negative long-term consequences. No panel member expects the overall consequences of a Brexit outcome to be beneficial for the UK economy – the first time since this survey began that one side of the argument is supported by none of the respondents.

Giancarlo Corsetti, Gernot Müller, 18 June 2016

For decades, the UK government has been very careful in ensuring a low-risk status for its public and private debt. This column warns that if the UK opts to leave the EU, uncertainty over the implications of Brexit would put this low-risk status in jeopardy. A depreciation of the pound could well generate an export boom, but this would not compensate for the damage to internal demand and to the UK’s ability to access external financing of its deficits.

Nauro Campos, 17 June 2016

As Europe heads towards Parliamentary elections, this VideoVox looks at the economic benefits of EU membership. On average, European countries are 12% richer a decade after they join the EU. The UK is 24% better off since joining in 1973. The video was recorded in March 2014.

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