Christiane Baumeister, Lutz Kilian, Xiaoqing Zhou, 24 September 2013

Recent work on forecasting oil prices raises the question of whether oil industry analysts know something about forecasting the price of oil that academic economists have missed. This column presents evidence that they do, but economists know how to improve further on these practitioners’ insights.

Lutz Kilian, 29 June 2012

It has long been argued that changes in the price of oil can help forecast US real GDP growth. This column addresses the common concern among many policymakers that the feedback from oil prices to the economy may become stronger once the price of oil reaches a certain level.

Michael Spence, 08 April 2011

Michael Spence of Stanford University talks to Viv Davies about growth prospects in the US and developing countries. He describes the current divergence between growth and employment in the US economy. They also discuss global imbalances, fiscal coordination in Europe, the global investment rate and the threat of rising oil prices to global growth. The interview was recorded in Washington DC in March 2011 at the IMF conference, ‘Macro and Growth Policies in the Wake of the Crisis’. [Also read the transcript.]

Francesco Lippi, 11 June 2008

High oil prices are back – more than $125 per barrel. Such prices are associated with the macroeconomic pains of the 1970s, but this column argues that the recent surge may actually be good news for developed economies’ industries. The logic lies in the difference between demand shocks and supply shocks.

Sergei Guriev, Anton Kolotilin, Konstantin Sonin, 12 April 2008

The rising price of oil has been accompanied by nationalisations of oil assets, and the relationship is no mere coincidence. Recent research shows that higher oil prices trigger expropriations, particularly in countries with weak political institutions.

Daniel Gros, 21 December 2007

Coal’s supply elasticity is much higher than that of oil, so rising demand encourages substitution to dirty coal from cleaner oil – and switching is easy ex ante but hard ex post. In the next 10 years, China will install more power-generation capacity than Europe’s current stock. If it is all coal-burning, emissions will be difficult to reduce for decades. High oil prices are not part of the solution; they are part of the problem.

Art Durnev, Sergei Guriev, 21 November 2007

The consensus story: Resource abundance boosts GDP in the short-run but hinders or reverses the development of growth-enhancing institutions and thus long-run growth. New evidence suggests that this works by worsening corporate transparency, capital allocation and growth.

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