In the traditional framework, sovereigns face default if they cannot repay maturing debt. Mark Aguiar discusses the concept of 'rollover crises', in which sovereigns can find new debt to pay off maturing debt - but at high spreads. He proposes a way to structure this ahead of time, that reduces the cost to the government. This video was published by the ADEMU Project in November 2016.
Mark Aguiar, 13 March 2018
Gary Gorton, Guillermo Ordoñez, 27 March 2016
Credit booms are not rare and usually precede financial crises. However, some end in a crisis while others do not. This column argues that credit booms start with an increase in productivity, which subsequently falls much faster during ‘bad booms’. When this decline is severe enough, it changes the informational regime in credit markets, leading to a drying up of credit. A crisis may be the result of an exhausted credit boom and not necessarily of a negative productivity shock.
Carmen Reinhart, 09 July 2015
Contrary to the intent of the designers of what was to be an irreversible currency union, Greece may well exit the Eurozone. This column argues that default does not inevitably trigger the introduction of a new currency (or the re-activation of an old one). However, if ‘de-euroisation’ is the end game, then a forcible (or compulsory) currency conversion is likely to be a central part of that process, along with more broad-based capital controls.
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