Marijn Bolhuis, Judd N. L. Cramer, 02 April 2020

The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on public health will have major repercussions for the global economy, impacting trends in many different sectors. This column uses detailed neighbourhood-level data to evaluate the impact of demographic changes on different segments of the US housing market. As larger homes (and those in neighbourhoods with relatively more baby boomers) lag behind the broader market in terms of price growth, they also appear increasingly difficult to sell. In the wake of COVID-19, a large share of the US population is at risk of taking a substantial hit to their asset portfolio, just as they retire.

Giulia Giupponi, Camille Landais, 01 April 2020

Short-time work is a subsidy for temporary reductions in the number of hours worked in firms affected by temporary shocks. Evidence suggests that it can have large positive effects on employment and can be more effective than unemployment insurance or universal transfers. This column discusses how the COVID-19 crisis – with its mandated reduction in hours of work and massive liquidity crunch for firms – is a textbook case for the use of short-time work. Taking into account available evidence and the current situation, it proposes guidelines to effectively implement short-term work.

Mikkel Hermansen, 15 March 2020

More than a fifth of American workers are required to hold an occupational licence to do their job, usually with the aim of protecting public health and safety. However, secular declines in job mobility, business dynamics, and productivity growth have raised concerns over the costs of licensing and its potential influence on these trends. Using novel administrative data with nearly complete employment coverage, this column presents suggestive evidence of sizeable effects of licensing on job mobility, especially on job-to-job flows across states. 

Francine Blau, Lawrence Kahn, Peter Brummund, Jason Cook, Miriam Larson-Koester, 12 March 2020

Previous studies provided evidence that even in developed countries, parents behaved differently with sons than with daughters. In light of more recent data, this column presents new evidence that the preference for sons appears to have declined in the US. Having a female first child continues to increase the likelihood of a family’s living without a father, but is now associated with lower fertility over time. 

Wolfgang Keller, Hâle Utar, 05 March 2020

The 20th century saw a steady increase in the number of women postponing motherhood to enhance their labour market opportunities. Sometime in the early 2000s, that trend ended. This column compares the experience of women in the US and Denmark and finds that women of childbearing age who experienced diminished labour market opportunities because of import competition from China turned towards family life, while men focused on finding a new career path in the labour market. Import competition from China raised the likelihood of marriage for women but not for men.

Leah Boustan, 02 March 2020

Are the children of immgrants to the US who are being raised below the middle class able to move up?

Christian Bayer, Benjamin Born, Ralph Luetticke, 26 February 2020

How much does inequality matter for the business cycle and vice versa? This column explores the two-way relationship using a heterogeneous agent New Keynesian model estimated on both the macro and micro data. Although adding data on wealth and income inequality may not materially change the estimated shocks driving the US business cycle, the estimated business cycle shocks themselves are useful for explaining the evolution of US wealth and income inequality from the 1950s to today.

Leah Boustan, 21 February 2020

A century ago, American nativists succeeded in establishing immigration quotas to drive up the wages of US workers. What happened next? Not what you might think, Leah Boustan tells Tim Phillips.

Bruno Caprettini, Hans-Joachim Voth, 22 February 2020

Governments of modern states need to convince men and women to fight and possibly to die for their country, putting aside their ‘selfish’ instinct to stay alive. This column examines whether welfare spending under Roosevelt’s New Deal boosted US patriotism during WWII. It finds that higher welfare spending prior to 1940 is positively correlated with greater patriotism, as measured by war bond purchases, volunteering for the US Army, and exceptionally brave acts in battle. The findings suggest that when the federal government looks out for its citizens’ needs, men and women who benefit repay the largesse by becoming more patriotic.

Anne Case, 17 February 2020

Anne Case traces the rise in 'deaths of despair' in the US back to stagnating wages and the contracting out by firms of low-skilled jobs to avoid high health insurance costs

Alejandro Cuñat, Robert Zymek, 17 February 2020

Most countries exhibit large variation in bilateral trade balances across their trade partners. This column argues that it is possible to use gravity trade models to describe the sources of this variation with greater clarity, but that a large portion of the variation still remains poorly understood. It also shows that tariffs imposed during the US-China trade war will reduce the US-China trade deficit in the long run, but only by worsening the US trade balance with other trade partners almost one-for-one.

Kym Anderson, 16 February 2020

Global alcoholic beverage markets have changed dramatically in recent years due to globalisation, income growth in emerging economies, changes in individual preferences, policy initiatives to curb socially harmful drinking, and, in particular, the dual trade policy shocks of Brexit and the US’s unilaterally imposed discriminatory tariffs. This column provides an overview of the major trends and projects the possible effects of Brexit and the US tariffs on the global alcohol market. It concludes that both shocks would reduce world trade in wine. Even countries not targeted by US tariffs can be worse off if those tariffs sufficiently reduce global consumption. 

Susan Ariel Aaronson, 05 February 2020

Individuals, citizens and firms have become increasingly dependent on data-driven services such as artificial intelligence and apps, and the same is true of defence and national security officials. This column argues that the US failure to adequately govern how firms use and monetise data affects national security in many ways. It also examines specific examples of the misuse of data and assesses the responses by the US and the EU.

Alvaro Calderon, Vasiliki Fouka, Marco Tabellini, 01 February 2020

The 1940-1970 Great Migration of African Americans was one of the largest episodes of internal migration in the US. This column examines how resulting changes in the racial composition of local constituencies affected voters’ preferences and politicians’ behaviour. It finds that Democrats and union members supported blacks’ struggle for racial equality, but that backlash against civil rights erupted among Republicans and among whites who more exposed to racial mixing of their neighbourhoods. It also shows that politicians largely responded to demands of their constituencies. The findings suggest that under certain conditions, cross-race coalitions can emerge, but they also indicate that changes in the composition of the electorate can polarise both voters and politicians.

Peter Arcidiacono, Josh Kinsler, Tyler Ransom, 22 January 2020

Many elite universities in the US send recruitment materials to secondary school students in an effort to enlarge their applicant pools. This column focuses on Harvard University and documents a sudden increase in African American applications, driven by those with lower entrance exam scores, which did not result in a larger share of African American admits. It discusses possible motivations for this practice of recruiting applicants, particularly African Americans, who essentially have no chance of being admitted. 

Michele Fioretti, Hongming Wang, 19 January 2020

As health spending continues to rise globally, pay-for-performance can be an attractive policy tool for promoting high-quality services at lower costs. But there are concerns that it weakens the finances of poor-performing hospitals in low-income areas. This column examines the efficiency and equity consequences of the introduction of pay-for-performance in the Medicare insurance programme in the US. It finds that after the payment reform, high-quality insurers selected healthier enrollees, shifting the distribution of high-quality insurance to the healthiest counties and worsening regional disparities in healthcare access.

Peter Egger, Jiaqing Zhu, 09 January 2020

The US and China have been exchanging threats and imposing tariffs in a ‘trade war’ since early 2018. Sound statistical and holistic economic analysis of the trade dispute’s consequences is difficult due to data limitations. This column scrutinises global stock market responses to assess the effects of the trade war and finds that, on average, the US and Chinese tariffs have directly hurt targeted firms/sectors abroad as intended, but they have also hurt firms at home. It also reveals unintended effects on third parties, mediated by global value chain interdependencies.

Ruben Durante, 20 December 2019

New research demonstrates what we all suspected: for decades, politicians have routinely used busy news days to bury unpopular announcements. Ruben Durante educates Tim Phillips in the politics of distraction.

Yong Suk Lee, Benjamin Cedric Larsen, Michael Webb, Mariano-Florentino Cuéllar, 14 December 2019

As artificial intelligence becomes more widespread and its performance improves, it will likely have significant long-term consequences for jobs, inequality, organisations, and competition. Regulation may be used to address its risks and possibilities, but little is known about how AI-related regulation might affect firm behaviour. This column examines the impact of actual and potential AI regulations on business managers through a randomised online survey experiment. It finds that exposure to information about regulation decreases managers’ reported intent to adopt AI technologies in their firm’s business processes.

Tiziano Arduini, Alberto Bisin, Onur Ozgur, Eleonora Patacchini, 27 November 2019

Smoking and alcohol use are widespread among adolescents in the US and are linked to negative socioeconomic effects.While existing research has separately looked at the dynamic choice and the social interactions that shape adolescent risky behaviours, this column considers both components in a dynamic social interactions model. Looking at alcohol and smoking use in a school environment, it finds that addiction and peer effects are more than twice as important as the effect of individual preferences in shaping risky behaviour and that students take into account the amount of time they have left in the school system.

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