Ingo Borchert, Joscelyn Magdeleine, Juan Marchetti, Aaditya Mattoo, 20 June 2020

Despite the growing importance of services in output and trade, there has been relatively little information on how services policies have evolved over the past decades. This column presents evidence on services trade policies from a new database created by the World Bank and WTO. It reveals that higher income economies are more open on average than developing economies, but the chronology of reform varies across sectors. In addition, while explicit restrictions are being lowered, regulatory scrutiny is increasing in most sectors, especially in higher income economies.

Fernando Leibovici, Ana Maria Santacreu, 14 June 2020

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has led to a massive increase in the demand for essential medical equipment. This column discusses recent findings on the role of international trade of essential medical goods in exacerbating or mitigating the impact of a pandemic. The effects depend crucially on the countries’ trade imbalances in essential medical goods. Net importers of these goods are relatively worse off during a pandemic than net exporters. Although the welfare losses of net importers are lower in a world with high trade barriers, they benefit from reducing barriers once the pandemic arrives.

Christopher Woodruff, 30 April 2020

Low-income countries lack the resources to replicate European-style income support programmes to alleviate the economic impact of COVID-19 lockdowns. In Bangladesh, a key challenge will be to support export-oriented production in the ready-made garment sector, which employs 4 million workers. Whether factories retain or lay off workers in response to government policies – and whether the health crisis escalates into a humanitarian crisis or not – depends crucially on decisions of foreign apparel buyers to honour or drop commitments to previously agreed orders.

Reshad N Ahsan, Laura Panza, Yong Song, 18 April 2020

While the relationship between trade and war is ambiguous, some argue that diminished trade can pose a threat to global peace by lowering both the opportunity costs of war and the cost of raising an army. This column examines the relationship between Atlantic trade and war in Europe between 1640 and 1896, a period in which intra-European conflict decreased dramatically. It finds that the growth in Atlantic trade lowered the probability of intra-European conflict by 15 percentage points.

Alvaro Espitia, Nadia Rocha, Michele Ruta, 09 April 2020

The COVID-19 pandemic is increasingly a concern for developing countries. This column shows that most developing countries rely heavily on imports to meet their needs of medical supplies essential to combat COVID-19. Recently imposed export restrictions by leading producing countries could thus cause significant disruptions in supplies for developing countries and might further contribute to price increases of medical supplies. Taking multiplier effects into account, prices for medical supplies are estimated to rise by up to 23% on average. Tariffs and other restrictions to imports further impair the flow of critical products to developing countries.

Rabah Arezki, Ha Nguyen, 01 April 2020

Countries in the Middle East and North Africa face a dual shock from the COVID-19 pandemic and a collapse in oil prices. This column explores the policy options available to deal with such shocks, arguing that authorities should sequence and tailor their responses. MENA countries should first focus on responding to the health emergency and economic depression, postponing fiscal consolidation linked to the persistent drop in oil prices until the recovery from the pandemic is well underway. 

Kym Anderson, 16 February 2020

Global alcoholic beverage markets have changed dramatically in recent years due to globalisation, income growth in emerging economies, changes in individual preferences, policy initiatives to curb socially harmful drinking, and, in particular, the dual trade policy shocks of Brexit and the US’s unilaterally imposed discriminatory tariffs. This column provides an overview of the major trends and projects the possible effects of Brexit and the US tariffs on the global alcohol market. It concludes that both shocks would reduce world trade in wine. Even countries not targeted by US tariffs can be worse off if those tariffs sufficiently reduce global consumption. 

Mario Larch, José-Antonio Monteiro, Roberta Piermartini, Yoto Yotov, 20 November 2019

Though economic theory clearly makes the case for WTO trade rules, the empirical evidence of their effect is mixed. This column argues that previous studies may have underestimated the positive role of GATT/WTO membership by not taking into account the non-discriminatory nature of their agreements. Besides market access, the agreements provide greater transparency and predictability that benefit WTO members and non-members alike. Taking these effects into account suggests that, on average, GATT/WTO membership has increased trade between Members by 171% and trade between member and non-member countries by about 88%. 

Xavier Jaravel, Erick Sager, 16 October 2019

International trade creates both winners and losers. Using comprehensive price data, this column estimates the US price effects of the China shock from 2000 to 2007. It finds that US consumers benefited from large price declines in product categories in which imports from China increased, as increased trade with China eroded the market power of US producers. The positive impact of the China shock on the purchasing power of US consumers is large in comparison to its negative impact on US jobs.

Rui Costa, Swati Dhingra, Stephen Machin, 01 October 2019

Some commentators argue that globalisation is systematically connected to the real-wage and productivity stagnation seen across the developed world. This column analyses the relationship between international trade and worker outcomes in the immediate aftermath of the Brexit referendum, when the value of the sterling fell massively against other nations’ currencies. It finds that the rise in import costs from the sterling depreciation hurt wages and training. This relative decline in real earnings of workers has reinforced pre-existing real-wage stagnation; UK workers have not fared well since the referendum price rise.


We are pleased to announce the celebration of the XVI Workshop on Economic Integration, organized by the INTECO joint research unit in Economic Integration to be held at the University Jaume I in Castellón the next 28th and 29th of November 2019. In this edition, our invited key speaker will be Mario Larch (University of Bayreuth) and a round-table on risk-sharing in the eurozone with the participation of Román Escolano (CUNEF), Jean-Baptiste Gossé (Bank of France) and Adrià Morrón (CaixaBank).

Analogously to previous years, the workshop will consist of the presentation of working papers in the field of economic integration, both real (international trade) and financial (international finance). Participants will have 20 minutes to present their works and then each paper will be briefly commented by a discussant and open for general discussion to the floor.

In case you are interested in participating in the workshop, either presenting or discussing papers, please let us know by email: [email protected] before the 25th October. In case you are interested in presenting a paper, please submit it with your expression of interest.

a) 25th of October 2019: expression of interest and submission of papers.
b) 8th of November 2019: publication of the program
b) 28th and 29th of November 2019: workshop

Regarding travel and financial issues, we can cover accommodation for one night and meals, as well as Thursday’s 28th dinner, only for those colleagues included in the final program. Other expenses will be covered by your own budget. All the information will be available on the INTECO web page (

Fariha Kamal, 07 July 2019

‘Factoryless’ goods producing entities outsource physical transformation activities while retaining ownership of the intellectual property and control of sales to customers. Using 2012 data from the US Census Bureau, this column provides a new conceptual definition of factoryless activity. It also compares factoryless goods producer firms to service providers outside the manufacturing sector, and hybrid manufacturers to traditional manufacturers within the manufacturing sector. The analysis reveals several meaningful correlations between factoryless status at the firm level and conceptual variables such as employment mix, innovation, and importing activities.

Weicheng Lian, Natalija Novta, Evgenia Pugacheva, Yannick Timmer, Petia Topalova, 07 June 2019

The dramatic decline in the relative price of capital goods has been an important – but overlooked – driver of real investment. This column analyses cross-country price data to establish that deepening trade integration and productivity growth have both contributed to this decline. The erosion of support for international trade and sluggish productivity growth may limit further declines in relative prices of capital goods, which could negatively affect real investment rates. 

Christophe Gouel, David Laborde, 06 February 2019

Given our collective failure to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, the world will have to adapt to a certain level of climate change. This may mean that as climate change affects crops’ yield potential, new patterns of comparative advantage, and hence new trade flows, will emerge. This column examines the importance of the market adaptations in mediating welfare losses in the agricultural sector. The findings suggest a large role for international trade: when adjustments in trade flows are constrained, global welfare losses from climate change increase by 76%.

Claudia Steinwender, 11 April 2018

Flows of information, though critical for the efficient functioning of markets, are often limited in reality, potentially distorting trade flows and price patterns. This column uses the transatlantic telegraph connection of 1866 to explore how changes in information frictions affected cotton markets in the US and UK. The results show that information frictions decrease average trade flows and the volatility of trade, leading to substantial welfare losses.

Eugenio Cerutti, Haonan Zhou, 09 February 2018

Chinese banks have continued to expand rapidly both domestically and abroad. Together, they constitute the largest banking sector in the world by far. This column places the Chinese banking system in a global context. Although very small relative to their domestic claims, Chinese banks’ foreign claims are substantial for many borrower countries in Asia, Africa, and the Caribbean in particular. Many of these banking connections are related to Chinese outward foreign direct investment, with fewer related to trade linkages.

Alan de Bromhead, Alan Fernihough, Markus Lampe, Kevin O'Rourke, 24 March 2017

With Brexit looming, and protectionist pressures mounting elsewhere in the developed world, the question of whether trade policy matters is taking on more significance. This column looks at the extent to which trade policy was responsible for the shift towards intra-imperial trade in the interwar period. Both tariffs and quotas increased the Empire’s share of British trade, suggesting that trade policy mattered more for interwar trade patterns than the cliometric literature has suggested.

Adrian Wood, 18 March 2017

In defending trade from misguided protectionism, economists argue that the main killer of manufacturing employment around the world has been technology, not trade. This column explores how globalisation has caused the sectoral structures of countries to conform more closely to their factor endowments. In the skill-abundant developed regions, manufacturing became more skill-intensive, while in skill-scarce and land-scarce Asia, labour-intensive manufacturing expanded. In land-abundant developing Africa, Latin America, and the Middle East, by contrast, manufacturing contracted.

Italo Colantone, Piero Stanig, 23 November 2016

The vote for Brexit was a watershed moment in European politics. This column investigates the causal drivers of differences in support for the Leave campaign across UK regions. Globalisation in the form of the ‘Chinese import shock’ is found to be a key driver of regional support for Brexit. The results suggest that policies are needed that help to redistribute the benefits of globalisation across society. 


CEPR Policy Research