Mario Lackner, Rudi Stracke, Uwe Sunde, Rudolf Winter-Ebmer, 12 March 2016

Decision makers are typically assumed to be fully rational and forward looking. There is very little empirical evidence, however, on whether decision makers take account of future states of the world in strategic interactions. This column presents research on playoff matches in professional basketball to investigate whether teams are forward looking. The findings show that teams react strategically to variation in the ability of their expected future opponent when competing in earlier stages of the tournament. 


CEPR Policy Research