Alexandra Avdeenko, Onur Eryilmaz, 03 August 2021

Sudden floods across Central Europe have led governments to initiate bailouts, putting decades-old debates on how to respond to future natural disasters back on the policy agenda. Using a representative longitudinal dataset, this column provides evidence that the 2013 floods in Germany reduced willingness to take risks among men living close to the flooded areas, but had no such effect on women. It also finds that affected households were significantly more likely to hold life insurance after the floods. The findings suggest that a portion of the costs associated with natural disasters is likely to be internalised by households at risk, with implications for governments seeking to provide incentives for household-level adaptation measures such as insurance or better building standards. 

Maximilian Konradt, Beatrice Weder di Mauro, 29 July 2021

Model-based studies on the effect of carbon taxation point to sizeable inflationary effects. This column uses evidence from Canada and Europe over the past three decades to show that carbon taxes changed relative prices but did not increase the overall price level. Instead, they were slightly deflationary. In the case of British Columbia, the driver may have been a fall in household income depressing the prices of non-energy goods, which more than offset rising energy prices. The income compression was most pronounced among the richest households, suggesting that the redistribution scheme achieved its intended aim of favouring low-income households.

Laurent Ferrara, Valérie Mignon, 17 July 2021

Identifying the peaks and troughs of recessionary episodes helps economists to understand the conditions surrounding crises. But deciding when a recession starts or finishes is not straightforward, and several methods exist. This column presents the dating specification for the French Business Cycle Dating Committee, describing how the group identifies key phases in France’s economic performance based on a quantitative and a qualitative pillar. The committee has dated the peak of the recession linked to the recent Covid-19 pandemic to the last quarter of 2019, it is still too early to identify the exit date of this recession, which is unprecedented in its source and profile. 

,

We are delighted to invite you to an online discussion and launch of a new RESPECT ebook, 'Rebooting Multilateral Trade Cooperation: Perspectives from China and Europe' published by CEPR/VoxEU. The event will be hosted by the Friends of Multilateralism Group in Geneva and will take place online on 13 July from 15:00 to 16:30 CEST.

Programme
15:00-15:05
Opening Remarks: Mia Mikic (FMG)
15:05-15:30
Presentations: Bernard Hoekman (EUI, FMG) and Xinquan Tu (UIBE)
15:30-16:00
Discussant comments:
Yi Xiaozhun (UIBE, Former DDG, WTO)
Alan Wolff (PIIE, former DDG, WTO)
Jean-Marie Paugam (DDG, WTO)
Deborah Elms (Executive Director, Asian Trade Centre)
16:00-16:30
General Q&A
Moderator for the whole webinar: Patrick Low (FMG)

Zoom--Please click the link below to join the webinar:
https://zoom.com.cn/j/81851324449?pwd=SjFxRTN0Rjlnb1kyanhHa0Q5ODhTQT09
Passcode: 086513

Rising geopolitical and geoeconomic tensions are undermining the rules-based multilateral trade order and threaten the ability of the WTO to fulfill its functions. The ebook ';Rebooting Multilateral Trade Cooperation: Perspectives from China and Europe' presents essays that explore options and possible paths forward to reboot multilateral trade cooperation, focusing on both cross-cutting areas pertaining to the operation of the organization subject-specific trade cooperation challenges confronting the WTO membership. While issue-specific cooperation on a plurilateral basis is part of the solution suggested by several of the contributions, others make clear that this does not remove the need for balance in the choice of issues put forward for deliberation and negotiation and for systemic WTO reform.

The ebook is available on CERP/VoxEU website: https://voxeu.org/content/rebooting-multilateral-trade-cooperation-perspectives-china-and-europe.

Miguel Ampudia, Thorsten Beck, Alexander Popov, 11 June 2021

The trade-off between stability and growth has long been a subject of policy debate and informs views on the extent to which the supervision of banks should be centralised. This column presents analysis of the ECB’s Single Supervisory Mechanism, using the announcement of the mechanism and its implementation as a quasi-natural experiment. It finds that centralised bank supervision is associated with a decline in lending to firms, which is accompanied by a shift away from intangible investment and towards more cash holdings and higher investment in easily collateralisable physical assets.

Dimitris Christelis, Dimitris Georgarakos, Tullio Jappelli, Geoff Kenny, 08 June 2021

The coronavirus pandemic has generated a complex economic shock that has affected households across the euro area very differently. This column uses survey data from around 10,000 households across Europe to reveal substantial divergences in the pandemic-induced financial concerns of households across population subgroups and countries. Financial concerns are significantly greater for younger, female, and low-income individuals in countries where the first wave of Covid-19 was more severe.

Martin Larch, Janis Malzubris, Stefano Santacroce, 19 May 2021

In 2020, EU member states launched massive fiscal measures to mitigate the economic and social fallout of the Covid pandemic. The activation of the severe economic downturn clause of the Stability and Growth Pact, coupled with a decisive intervention of the ECB, offered member states the flexibility to stage their fiscal response. As this column reveals, however, a closer look through the lens of an expenditure benchmark highlights important cross-country differences reflecting deeper issues. Countries with very high debt and/or high sustainability risks are bound by their meagre growth prospects. If unaddressed, future reviews of the EU fiscal rules may buy time, but not solve the underlying issues. 

John O'Hagan, 04 May 2021

The presence of prize-winning young economists among faculty can be seen as a marker of a university’s status in the field of economics, particularly when awards are given on the basis of researchers being published in ‘top’ journals. This column examines where recent young economist prize winners studied for their doctorates and identifies a clear pattern of dominance, with the US – particularly Boston – the clear frontrunner.

Assaf Razin, 23 April 2021

Concerns associated with the Covid-19 pandemic have led to new rationales of protectionism, with renewed emphasis on domestic production and sourcing. This column compares the current economic crisis brought on by the pandemic to previous major economic crises and examines what this could mean for the future of various aspects of globalisation.

Jonathan Muringani, Rune Fitjar, Andrés Rodríguez-Pose, 20 April 2021

Social capital matters for economic growth and development, but different types of social capital matter in very different ways. This column examines how differences in social capital across Europe shape regional economic growth. While ‘bridging’ social capital is linked to higher regional economic growth, ‘bonding’ social capital leads to lower growth. This is particularly the case in less-developed regions and in regions with a lower endowment of human capital. As the level of education increases, the need for bridging social capital declines, implying that bridging social capital and human capital are, to a certain extent, substitutes.

Asger Lau Andersen, Niels Johannesen, Mia Jørgensen, José-Luis Peydró, 19 April 2021

Who gains – and by how much ­– when central banks soften their monetary policy regime is a key policy question. This column discusses new evidence on the distributional effects of monetary policy based on detailed administrative household-level data. The authors show that the gains from lower policy rates exhibit a steep income gradient, with the increases in income, wealth, and consumption modest at the bottom of the income distribution and highest at the top. 

Giorgio Barba Navaretti, Alberto Pozzolo, 12 March 2021

It has been two years since Wirecard suddenly collapsed. Giorgio Barba Navaretti and Alberto Pozzolo explain to Tim Phillips why it is so hard to supervise global fintechs, and how regulators can do a better job next time.

Shusen Qi, Ralph De Haas, Steven Ongena, Stefan Straetmans, 03 March 2021

Digitalisation, FinTech, and the expansion of mobile banking have changed the way in which many banks operate on a day-to-day basis, including where they choose to have physical branches. This column explores the effect of digitalisation on the geography of banks, testing the effects of digital information-sharing on branch locations in Europe. findings suggest that information sharing has a strong positive effect on branch clustering, with banks more likely to open new branches in areas where they do not yet operate but where other banks are already present.

Vincent Aussilloux, Adam Baïz, Matthieu Garrigue, Philippe Martin, Dimitris Mavridis, 19 February 2021

The Covid-19 crisis has presented policymakers across the euro area with an unprecedented challenge, not least of all because the shock has come to both the supply side and the demand side of the economy. This column presents a preliminary analysis of different nations’ responses so far, focusing on which measures have been deployed to address each side of the economic shock and where a ‘mixed approach’ has been taken to work in tandem. At a time where coordinated action may be needed, there is a concerning level of inconsistency in strategy. 

Branko Milanovic, 29 January 2021

In classical capitalism, the rich earn their money from capital while the poor sell the value of their labour. In which countries is that still true, and how does it affect the gap between rich and poor? Branko Milanovic tells Tim Phillips about a new way in which we can think about inequality.

Arnoud Boot, Elena Carletti, Hans‐Helmut Kotz, Jan Pieter Krahnen, Loriana Pelizzon, Marti Subrahmanyam, 25 January 2021

Covid-19 has placed renewed pressure on the European banking sector as firms and households struggle to meet the costs imposed by the pandemic. This column provides a comparative assessment of the various policy responses to strengthen banks in light of the crisis. While the authors do not make a specific final recommendation, they review the different options suggested within current research and provide a criteria-based framework for policymakers to guide them in their decision making.

Francesco Fasani, Jacopo Mazza, 25 January 2021

The spread of COVID-19 has had dire consequences for the earnings and employment of workers in Europe. As in most recessions, immigrants are among the most vulnerable workers. This column proposes a measure of employment risk based on workers’ job attributes which sidesteps the lack of an up-to-date European labour force survey, and estimates that the pandemic-induced recession puts 9 million immigrant workers at high risk of unemployment in Europe.

Christine Binzel, Andreas Link, Rajesh Ramachandran, 24 December 2020

The use of a language in written and formal contexts that is distinct from the languages used in everyday communication – such as Latin in early modern Europe and Standard Arabic in the Arabic-speaking world, both past and present – comes with benefits, but also with costs. Drawing on publishing data from early modern Europe, this column shows that the Protestant Reformation led to a sudden and sharp rise in vernacular printing, such that by the end of the 16th century, the majority of works were printed in spoken tongues rather than in Latin. This transformation allowed broader segments of society to access knowledge. It also diversified the composition of authors and book content and had long-term consequences for economic development.

Andrés Rodríguez-Pose, Roberto Ganau, Kristina Maslauskaite, Monica Brezzi, 15 December 2020

Does institutional quality mitigate the negative returns of credit rationing on labour productivity? Using data on a large sample of manufacturing firms in 11 European countries, this column demonstrates that this is indeed the case, especially for micro, small, and medium-sized firms. The negative effects of credit constraints on productivity are mitigated in those areas of Europe with high-quality governance. ‘Good’ regional institutions not only drive firm-level productivity but also, and in a more indirect way, reduce the negative productivity returns of credit constraints.

Marco Ranaldi, Branko Milanovic, 03 December 2020

Similar levels of income inequality may coexist with completely different distributions of capital and labor incomes. This column introduces a new measure of compositional inequality, allowing the authors to distinguish between different capitalist societies. The analysis suggests that Latin America and India are rigid ‘class-based’ societies, whereas in most of Western European and North American economies (as well as in Japan and China), the split between capitalists and workers is less sharp and inequality is moderate or low. Nordic countries are ‘class-based’ yet fairly equal. Taiwan and Slovakia are closest to classless and low inequality societies. 

Pages

Events

CEPR Policy Research