Ingo Borchert, L Alan Winters, 28 April 2021

An increasing amount of trade is digital, but trade negotiations are bogged down by arguments over how to regulate it. A new CEPR eBook investigates what gets in the way of digital trade, and editors Ingo Borchert and Alan Winters tell Tim Phillips what we can do to make it work better.

You can download the eBook, free of charge, here

Daron Acemoğlu, David Autor, Jonathon Hazell, Pascual Restrepo, 03 March 2021

As artificial intelligence technologies improve rapidly, there is increasing interest in the effects on workers. This column uses data on skill requirements in US vacancies posted since 2010 to examine the impact of artificial intelligence on the US labour market. While the estimates suggest that AI has started to replace workers in certain tasks, it does not yet seem to be having effects on the aggregate labour market.

Liudmila Alekseeva, José Azar, Mireia Gine, Sampsa Samila, Bledi Taska, 03 May 2020

Artificial intelligence will transform job tasks and occupations. This column uses data from US online job postings during 2010–2019 to show how absolute and relative demand for AI-related skills has grown across all industry sectors and occupation groups. Jobs requiring AI skills command, on average, an 11% wage premium compared to similar jobs that do not require AI knowledge. However, AI is at least as much a managerial challenge as it is a technological challenge. Real productivity gains will come only when there are managers who can use AI to create and capture value.

Jon Danielsson, Robert Macrae, Andreas Uthemann, 06 March 2020

Artificial intelligence, such as the Bank of England Bot, is set to take over an increasing number of central bank functions. This column argues that the increased use of AI in central banking will bring significant cost and efficiency benefits, but also raise important concerns that are so far unresolved.

Yong Suk Lee, Benjamin Cedric Larsen, Michael Webb, Mariano-Florentino Cuéllar, 14 December 2019

As artificial intelligence becomes more widespread and its performance improves, it will likely have significant long-term consequences for jobs, inequality, organisations, and competition. Regulation may be used to address its risks and possibilities, but little is known about how AI-related regulation might affect firm behaviour. This column examines the impact of actual and potential AI regulations on business managers through a randomised online survey experiment. It finds that exposure to information about regulation decreases managers’ reported intent to adopt AI technologies in their firm’s business processes.

Suguru Tamura, 05 December 2019

An increasing number of goods and services employ AI-related technology. But for most consumers, determining which products use artificial intelligence remains a challenge. This column suggests that the spread of new technology may be delayed when information about it is difficult to communicate, and argues that standards governing artificial intelligence labelling can help to both educate consumers and promote the technology’s dissemination.


In collaboration with CEPR and the Brevan Howard Centre, Imperial College, the Bank of England is hosting a research conference on “the impact of machine learning and AI on the UK economy.” The purpose of the conference is to stimulate academic research and public debate on how machine learning and AI will impact issues that matter to the Bank of England’s policy objectives.

Jacques Melitz, Farid Toubal, 01 August 2019

Artificial intelligence has made spectacular progress in recent years. One particular source of high expectations is automatic translation and whether it will finally bring about the long-predicted death of distance in trade. This column examines the impact of a common language on bilateral trade and finds that the net result of reducing linguistic frictions with a set of trading partners is not apparent.The potential impact of machine translation on foreign trade remains up in the air.

Diane Coyle, 03 July 2019

Robert Shiller, 12 March 2019

Jobs help to define a person's relationship to society and to self; with the threat that AI poses to jobs comes a fear of losing one's identity. Nobel Laureate Robert Shiller of Yale University argues that economists should focus more on the 'meaning of life' and look beyond the figures on the page.

Andreas Fuster, Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham, Tarun Ramadorai, Ansgar Walther, 11 January 2019

The use of machine learning in credit allocation should allow lenders to better extend credit, but the shift from traditional to machine learning lending models may have important distributional effects for consumers. This column studies the effect of machine learning on mortgage lending in the US. It finds that machine learning would offer lower rates to racial groups who already were at an advantage under the traditional model, but it would also benefit disadvantaged groups by enabling them to obtain a mortgage in the first place.

Jacques Bughin, Christopher Pissarides, 02 January 2019

Europe’s social contracts to protect their citizens from socioeconomic risks are based on an inclusive growth model characterised by a more egalitarian view of revenue generation and distribution. But this model is under strain, with various global trends placing upward pressure on inequality that could intensify. This column suggests that keeping the essence of Europe’s current inclusive growth model does not preclude it from adapting its current social contracts to protect its citizens, whatever the disruptions that lie ahead.

Jacques Bughin, 23 December 2018

Advances in artificial intelligence have led to fears of job losses. This column uses a global survey covering more than 3,000 executives across 14 sectors and ten countries to examine the impact of AI on the demand side of the labour market. Ultimately, the effect on employment will depend on whether companies choose to use current forms of AI for innovation or pure automation, and whether they foresee a return from it.

Simeon Djankov, Federica Saliola, 23 November 2018

Over the last century, technology has created more jobs than it has displaced. This column presents an overview of ways in which technology and innovation are changing the nature of work, leading to demand for advanced cognitive skills and greater adaptability among workers. The rise of platform marketplaces is also changing the way people work and the terms on which they work, which requires a rethinking of social protection systems.

Claudia Biancotti, Paolo Ciocca, 23 October 2018

Calls for regulation of big tech are getting louder and louder. This column argues that policy proposals should be evaluated through the lens of their impact on the evolution of artificial intelligence. It proposes a holistic framework that encompasses consumer control over data, competition in product markets, incentives to innovation, and implications for international trade. It also highlights the role played by major big tech companies, and the threat of data and artificial intelligence monopolisation.

Erik Brynjolfsson, Xiang Hui, Meng Liu, 16 September 2018

Recent years have seen dramatic progress in the predictive power of artificial intelligence in many areas, including speech recognition, but empirical evidence documenting its concrete economic effects is largely lacking. This column analyses the effect of the introduction of eBay Machine Translation on eBay’s international trade. The results show that it increased US exports on eBay to Spanish-speaking Latin American countries by 17.5%. By overriding trade-hindering language barriers, AI is already affecting productivity and trade and has significant potential to increase them further.

Jacques Bughin, James Manyika, 07 September 2018

As artificial intelligence technologies become more effective and are rolled out across economies, it is important to assess how their diffusion will affect different economic stakeholders. This column argues that an AI divide may open up on three levels: individuals (workers), companies, and countries. Unless the transition to the new economics of the future is managed effectively, these divides may create a backlash against the adoption of AI technologies, despite their significant potential long-term benefits.

Shunsuke Managi, 14 August 2018

In Japan, as in many other countries, manufacturers are testing automated driving technology, and policymakers are considering how to implement it. This column discusses the demand for the technology in Japan, using a survey of consumers. Almost half intended to purchase automated vehicles or driving systems, but willingness to pay was below the likely additional cost. 



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