economic forecasting

Economic Forecasting with NIESR

After a successful pilot last year, this short Executive Course launched by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research in collaboration with the University of Warwick returns on 24 to 26 September 2018 in London. It is aimed at trained economists who are seeking to produce forecasts for their organisations or need a better understanding of how to present forecasts to top management.

Guided by NIESR staff and by other recognised international experts in forecasting, by the end of the course participants will be able to produce simple model-based forecasts themselves, understand the sensitivity of forecasts to surprises, and be able to communicate the risks to senior stakeholders in business and government.

An Introduction to Forecasting in Economics and Finance

Training course by the Florence School of Banking and Finance (http://fbf.eui.eu/)

Course Instructor: Massimiliano Marcellino (Bocconi University and EUI)
Area: Statistical and Econometric Methods
Level: Introductory

This course will focus on the following topics:
- Review of specification, estimation and evaluation of linear regression models
- Using linear regression models for point, interval and density estimation
- Testing for parameter stability and allowing for parameter time-variation
- Forecasting with linear dynamic models
- Forecast evaluation, comparison and combination

This course is targeted at Financial Stability officers, Research department officers, Ph.D. and Post-doctoral researchers, Research department officers of private banks.

Sticky information and expectations of forecasters

Jonas Dovern, Ulrich Fritsche, Prakash Loungani, Natalia Tamirisa, 13 November 2014

Forecasts of many macroeconomic variables tend to be serially correlated, which is inconsistent with rational expectations. This column presents new evidence from a two-decade panel of individual forecasts from 36 different nations. While there is evidence of sluggish behaviour in average forecasts, individual forecasts are revised quite often. Sticky information theory might not be an adequate description of the expectations formation of forecasters.

Paying attention to inattention

Olivier Coibion, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 24 August 2012

Economics and economists have taken a beating in the last few years. One practice on the receiving end of much criticism has been the use of models that assume rational expectations when individuals are well informed. This column proposes some tests of these assumptions and argues that 'imperfect information' models may succeed where others have failed.

Do equity price drops foreshadow recessions?

John Bluedorn, Jörg Decressin, Marco Terrones, 14 September 2011

There are concerns that the recent sharp drop in equity prices in the advanced economies may signal a rise in the risk of a double-dip recession. This column examines the performance of equity prices as predictors of new recessions in the G7 economies. The findings suggest that equity prices are useful predictors of recessions in most of these countries. Recent drops in equity prices suggest that the probability of a double-dip recession in France, the UK, and the US has increased substantially.

Calling recessions in real time

James Hamilton, 18 July 2010

Is the world economy about to experience a "double-dip" recession? This column argues that, while there may be a recession on the way, the current recession ended in the summer of 2009. Any subsequent downturn should thus be labelled a new recession.

Short-run ignorance, long-run prescience: Forecasting exchange rates

Agnès Bénassy-Quéré, Valérie Mignon, Sophie Béreau, 17 July 2008

Economists’ best guess for the dollar’s value tomorrow is its value today, but they predict exchange rates a decade into the future. This column explains the difference between short-run and long-run exchange rate forecasts and examines the future of the euro-dollar rate.

Forecast foibles: Can the Fed foresee stormy times?

Jon Faust, 31 January 2008

The US Federal Reserve makes monetary policy based on necessarily imperfect economic forecasts. Recent research shows that the Fed is quite adept at assessing current economic conditions, but forecasting the future remains disappointingly difficult.

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