Marcel Timmer, Bart Los, Robert Stehrer, Gaaitzen De Vries, 21 November 2016

The recent deceleration of world trade has been widely discussed, and many argue the relationship between trade and GDP growth is undergoing a fundamental shift. This column presents a novel framework to account for changes in the import intensity of global demand. Import intensity rose between 2000 and 2008 due to high demand for durables and to international production fragmentation. After 2011, fragmentation stopped and demand shifted to services, in particular in China. Low trade ratios are likely to persist in the near future.

Events

  • 17 - 18 August 2019 / Peking University, Beijing / Chinese University of Hong Kong – Tsinghua University Joint Research Center for Chinese Economy, the Institute for Emerging Market Studies at Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, the Guanghua School of Management at Peking University, the Stanford Center on Global Poverty and Development at Stanford University, the School of Economics and Management at Tsinghua University, BREAD, NBER and CEPR
  • 19 - 20 August 2019 / Vienna, Palais Coburg / WU Research Institute for Capital Markets (ISK)
  • 29 - 30 August 2019 / Galatina, Italy /
  • 4 - 5 September 2019 / Roma Eventi, Congress Center, Pontificia Università Gregoriana Piazza della Pilotta, 4, Rome, Italy / European Center of Sustainable Development , CIT University
  • 9 - 14 September 2019 / Guildford, Surrey, UK / The University of Surrey

CEPR Policy Research