, 22 October 2018

Blockchain technology has a real potential to be a catalyst in the world of finance, offering new ways to intermediate capital risk and incite change in the financial sector. That's what the audience heard at a CEPR conference held at ING's London headquarters. But how much of this new technology is really understood? And is there a danger that hype is overshadowing reality?

Linda Schilling, Harald Uhlig, 11 October 2018

The Bank for International Settlements has attributed the volatility of the price of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies to the lack of a crypto central bank. This column examines the implications of this and the increasing, but bounded, supply of Bitcoin for the cryptocurrency’s price. It also discusses how the price of Bitcoin interacts with monetary policy for traditional currencies.

Raphael Auer, Stijn Claessens, 09 October 2018

Cryptocurrencies are often thought to operate out of the reach of national regulation. This column argues that in fact their valuations, transaction volumes, and user bases react substantially to news about regulatory actions. Because they rely on regulated financial institutions to operate and markets are (still) segmented across jurisdictions, cryptocurrencies are within the reach of national regulation.

Lin William Cong, Ye Li, Neng Wang, 05 October 2018

Cryptocurrencies, tokens, and the blockchain technology upon which these platforms are built hold considerable potential for financial architectures. This column presents a dynamic asset valuation model of cryptocurrencies and tokens on blockchain-based platforms. Price dynamics in the model feature explosive growth of the user base after an initial period of dormant adoption, accompanied by a run-up of token price volatility, in line with existing evidence. The findings highlight how the value of the tokens depends on user base, the quality of the blockchain platform, and users’ expectations of future token price dynamics. 

Yukun Liu, Aleh Tsyvinski, 06 September 2018

Cryptocurrencies have received a substantial amount of attention over the past year. This column uses textbook asset-pricing methods to explore how cryptocurrency returns compare with those of traditional asset classes. Results show that cryptocurrency returns do not co-move with traditional assets, but that some cryptocurrency-specific factors – namely, momentum and investor attention – strongly predict their performance. 

Dirk Niepelt, 20 August 2018

The potential benefits and risks of digital central bank money for use by the general public have been widely debated. This column looks at one aspect that has been somewhat overlooked – the consequences of substituting outside for inside money. ‘Reserves for all’ could increase the incentive to extend credit but might undermine political support for implicit financial assistance to banks. However, the effects need not be disruptive. 

Sabrina Howell, Marina Niessner, David Yermack, 23 July 2018

Initial coin offerings, whereby a blockchain-based venture raises capital by selling cryptographically secured digital assets (or ‘tokens’), may represent a significant innovation in entrepreneurial finance. This column studies a sample of 453 tokens that completed ICOs to investigate what types of issuer and token are successful. Tokens that offer voluntary disclosure, credibly commit to the project, and signal quality or potential to create substantial value tend to be more successful, and a founder or CEO with an entrepreneurial professional background is also beneficial.

Michael Casey, Jonah Crane, Gary Gensler, Simon Johnson, Neha Narula, 16 July 2018

The idea of a new software system that powers a consensus-driven form of shared record keeping has already had a profound effect, encouraging rapid and substantial investment in what is now commonly referred to as blockchain technology. This column introduces the latest Geneva Report on the World Economy, which assesses the available evidence and likely impact for this technology across a wide range of applications and explores the potential use cases for the financial sector, and the ways in which the organisation of these activities may change over time.

Simon Johnson, 16 July 2018

Blockchain technology has the potential to be a catalyst for change to incumbent financial sector firms. In this Vox Talk, Tim Phillips talks to Simon Johnson, one of the authors of the latest Geneva Report on the World Economy which looks at the technology and its possible applications. 

Beatrice Weder di Mauro, 06 July 2018

Central banks are concerned about the impact of cryptocurrencies. In this Vox Talk, Tim Phillips talks to Beatrice Weder di Mauro about the sources of this concern, and whether the disappearance of cash and a desire to escape the zero lower bound will lead to central banks issuing their own digital currencies.   

Lin William Cong, Zhiguo He, 05 July 2018

Blockchain technology provides decentralised consensus, which potentially enlarges the contracting space using tamper-proof smart contracts. But this implies distributed information. The column argues that there is a tension between these two features of blockchain. While complete contracts may increase competition, distributed information may also make collusion between incumbents more effective. 

Stephen Cecchetti, 25 June 2018

Though central banks do not seem concerned about being driven obsolete by cryptocurrencies, some are considering issuing digital currencies with similar technology. Stephen Cecchetti discusses three policy implications this might have, namely for restricting the illegal use of cash, allowing for negative interest rates, and improving financial access. All three are possible, but come with risk.

Biagio Bossone, Massimo Costa, 25 June 2018

A correct application of the general principles of accounting raises fundamental doubts about the current conceptions of money. This column argues that such an application allows the inconsistency whereby cryptocurrencies are not a debt liability if they are issued by private-sector entities, but become so if they are issued by central banks, to be resolved. In both cases, cryptocurrencies actually represent equity capital of the issuing entities, a conclusion that should greatly assist national monetary and financial authorities in shaping regulations.  

Jon Danielsson, 01 June 2018

Antonio Fatás, Beatrice Weder di Mauro, 14 May 2018

Central banks are alert to the challenge of cryptocurrencies, and are contemplating reactions ranging from prohibiting private issuance to embracing such currencies. This column argues that the risks of introducing a central bank digital currency are high while the efficiency gains do not seem large. A more efficient system can be achieved via innovation in current payment infrastructure.

Antonio Fatás, Beatrice Weder di Mauro, 07 May 2018

Economists have been dismissive of cryptocurrencies, but fintech entrepreneurs and enthusiasts continue to see their disruptive potential. This column considers the theoretical and practical arguments on both sides of the debate. Traditional currencies are overwhelmingly superior as forms of money, and cryptocurrencies’ advantage in terms of lax regulation is unlikely to last. There remains, however, ample potential for innovation in payment systems.

Ousmène Jacques Mandeng, Piroska Nagy-Mohacsi, 15 March 2018

Cryptocurrencies have been the subject of recent attacks by official sector representatives, and the G20 finance ministers will consider regulatory proposals at their next meeting in Buenos Aires. This column argues that while cryptocurrencies present certain risks, they also represent an important innovation that promises to enhance choice and efficiency in monetary transactions. A proportionate, risk-based regulatory approach is required to accommodate differential attitudes and experiences and to avoid stifling innovation and competition. This implies having an open debate before sweeping regulatory action.

Jon Danielsson, 13 February 2018

Cryptocurrencies are supposedly a new and superior form of money and investments – the way of the future. The author of this column, however, does not see the point of cryptocurrencies, finding them no better than existing fiat money or good investments.

Wouter den Haan, Martin Ellison, Ethan Ilzetzki, Michael McMahon, Ricardo Reis, 21 December 2017

Cryptocurrencies have been a staple of news headlines in 2017. The latest Centre for Macroeconomics and CEPR survey suggests that the majority of leading European economists do not believe that these currencies are currently a threat to the stability of the financial system, or will be in the next couple of years. A majority of panel members, however, are in favour of greater regulatory oversight, primarily because of concerns that the anonymity and opacity of cryptocurrencies facilitate tax evasion and other criminal activities.

Pages

Events

CEPR Policy Research