Gonçalo Faria, Fabio Verona, 09 May 2018

The slope of the yield curve is of interest to policymakers and market participants alike. But despite being a good in-sample predictor of the equity risk premium, it performs rather poorly out-of-sample. This column finds that the low-frequency component of the term spread is a strong and robust out-of-sample equity risk premium predictor for several forecasting horizons. This finding adds to recent empirical evidence that the level and price of aggregate risk in equity markets are strongly linked to low-frequency economic fluctuations.

Ricardo Caballero, Alp Simsek, 30 August 2017

Interest rates continue to decline across the globe, while returns to capital remain constant or increasing. The reasons for this widening risky-safe gap are wide-ranging. This column illustrates the secular rise of risk intolerance in the global economy, and summarises a new macroeconomic framework suitable for this environment. It uses this framework to discuss the current global macroeconomic context, its underlying fragility, and the coexistence of low equilibrium interest rates and high speculation.

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