Paul De Grauwe, Yuemei Ji, 24 September 2020

The coronavirus pandemic caused a catastrophic collapse in the world economy. This column analyses the path of this decline and compares it to two other major global crises: the Great Depression in the 1930s and the Great Recession following the banking crisis of 2007-2008. It argues that COVID-19 led to both negative demand and supply shocks, resulting in a contraction of industrial production at an unprecedented pace. However, a combination of strong government policies and a functioning banking sector have led to a swifter rebound in economic activity following the coronavirus shock in comparison with the previous two crises.

Nicholas Crafts, Alex Klein, 12 December 2017

The geography of industrial production changed dramatically during the 20th century both across and within countries. This column provides new estimates of changes in the spatial concentration of US manufacturing from 1880 to 1997. The average level across all industries fell by more than half over the period. Although creative destruction has had a strong spatial component, almost all industries can be described as significantly spatially concentrated at all times. 

Lutz Kilian, Xiaoqing Zhou, 09 November 2017

Global commodity prices surged across the board after 2003, with some observers claiming that this reflected a permanent increase in global real economic activity. This column argues that this was a persistent but transitory phenomena tied to rising commodity demand from Asia. It presents evidence of a global economic slowdown since 2011, with low real commodity prices likely to persist.


CEPR Policy Research