Benjamin Born, Gernot Müller, Moritz Schularick, Petr Sedláček, 01 October 2018

It is hard to calculate the current cost of Brexit, because there is no obvious counterfactual. The original version of this column, first published in November 2017, calculated the cost by letting a matching algorithm determine which combination of comparison economies best resembles the pre-referendum growth path of the UK economy. The results suggested a loss of 1.3% of GDP, or close to £300 million per week, since the vote took place. An update using the latest OECD data suggests that the negative drag from the Brexit vote now appears to be roughly £350 million a week.

Events

CEPR Policy Research