The ECB's Survey of Professional Forecasters supports the ECB’s view that inflation in the Eurozone will pick up and will be back within the central bank's target range in 2019. This column disagrees. Using a model that formalises the widely held view that inflation dynamics are a function of three components – long-term expectations, the Phillips curve, and oil price movement – it forecasts Eurozone inflation in 2019 at only 1.1%, a rate which is close to that implied by the bond markets.
Thomas Hasenzagl, Filippo Pellegrino, Lucrezia Reichlin, Giovanni Ricco, 15 January 2018
Most Read
Vox eBooks
Vox Talks
Events
-
23 - 23 November 2018 / London / Morgan Stanley
-
26 - 26 November 2018 / Vienna University of Economics and Business, Vienna, Austria / Vienna University of Economics and Business and Agenda Austria
-
13 - 15 December 2018 / Seoul, South Korea / Asian and Australasian Society of Labour Economics (AASLE)
-
15 - 15 March 2019 / London, Royal Society / UK Network of Environmental Economists (UKNEE)
-
28 - 29 March 2019 / Paris / SUERF - The European Money and Finance Forum Banque de France (BDF)
