Thomas Hasenzagl, Filippo Pellegrino, Lucrezia Reichlin, Giovanni Ricco, 15 January 2018

The ECB's Survey of Professional Forecasters supports the ECB’s view that inflation in the Eurozone will pick up and will be back within the central bank's target range in 2019.  This column disagrees.  Using a model that formalises the widely held view that inflation dynamics are a function of three components – long-term expectations, the Phillips curve, and oil price movement – it forecasts Eurozone inflation in 2019 at only 1.1%, a rate which is close to that implied by the bond markets.