The ECB's Survey of Professional Forecasters supports the ECB’s view that inflation in the Eurozone will pick up and will be back within the central bank's target range in 2019. This column disagrees. Using a model that formalises the widely held view that inflation dynamics are a function of three components – long-term expectations, the Phillips curve, and oil price movement – it forecasts Eurozone inflation in 2019 at only 1.1%, a rate which is close to that implied by the bond markets.
Thomas Hasenzagl, Filippo Pellegrino, Lucrezia Reichlin, Giovanni Ricco, 15 January 2018
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30 May - 1 June 2018 / Palma de Mallorca (Mallorca) - Spain / EAYE (European Association of Young Economists) - University of the Balearic Islands
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18 - 19 June 2018 / European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main, Germany / European Central Bank
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12 - 13 September 2018 / Rome, Italy / European Center of Sustainable Development , CIT University
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