David Comerford, Sevi Rodriguez Mora, 04 January 2019

Populists in Europe are contesting the perceived benefits of economic integration between countries. This column uses data on trade frictions to estimate the long-run impact of trade frictions on GDP if countries in Europe were to be more or less integrated. Negative between-country impacts, such as from Brexit or an EU collapse, imply a GDP reduction of between 1-3%. The potential trade benefits of a 'United States of Europe', on the other hand, may be an order of magnitude greater for its members.

Atsushi Nakajima, 27 March 2018

As the global economy continues to recover, trade frictions between advanced and emerging economies have started to appear. This column considers how Japan can continue its recent trend of economic expansion by addressing domestic growth opportunities while remaining resilient to international trade challenges. Both technological innovation and new business models are key to achieving this.

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