Pierluigi Balduzzi, Emanuele Brancati, Fabio Schiantarelli, 09 November 2018

The Italian government has decided to pursue an expansionary fiscal policy, with increased welfare spending as its focus. This column uses evidence from the 2010-2012 sovereign debt crisis to explore the potential negative effects of this policy on private investment. It finds that an increase in a bank’s credit default swap spreads leads to lower investment and employment for younger and smaller firms and in the aggregate. These findings suggest the planned fiscal expansion could substantially crowd out private investment.

Paolo Angelini, 12 April 2018

It has recently been argued that high non-performing loan stocks can limit banks’ lending ability, and thus impair the effectiveness of monetary policy. This column questions this claim and argues for a more nuanced view. It points to the lack of a serious theoretical analysis of the relationship between non-performing loan stocks and credit dynamics. Policy should focus on maximising the ‘cure rate’ rather than eliminating non-performing loans entirely.

Events

CEPR Policy Research