Peter Tillmann, 23 February 2012

As the US Federal Reserve starts to increase the transparency of its decision-making process, including the release of economic forecasts and interest-rate projections, this column asks whether these projections reflect strategic motives that might make them less accurate and less useful to those wanting to predict monetary policy.

Giancarlo Corsetti, 20 January 2012

Giancarlo Corsetti talks to Viv Davies about using cumulated inflation differentials as a guide for pricing sovereign risk across Eurozone countries. They also discuss the fiscal compact, the debate on growth versus austerity in the Eurozone and the recent downgrading of Italy and other Eurozone countries. Corsetti is of the opinion that liquidity support is essential for, and compatible, with reforms in the failing Eurozone economies.

Giancarlo Corsetti, M. Hashem Pesaran, 09 January 2012

High debt levels, house price booms, uncompetitive labour markets – the list of possible reasons why some European countries are facing the wrath of the market are many. This column argues that they all boil down to one measure – inflation. Using the inflation differentials as a guide is the first step to seeing what countries need to adjust – and by how much.

Heleen Mees, Philip Hans Franses, 20 November 2011

Are the Chinese prone to money illusion? This column uses a unique Chinese dataset and finds that, unlike their American counterparts, Chinese people are more likely to base decisions on the real value and not be fooled by inflation.

Michael Joyce, Matthew Tong, Robert Woods, 01 November 2011

With the Bank of England recently announcing an additional £75 billion of quantitative easing, a reasonable question to ask is whether the last £200 billion has made any difference. This argues that QE may have helped boost real GDP by as much as 2% and inflation by 1.5%, similar to the effect from a drop in the base rate of around 300 basis points.

Olivier Coibion, 08 June 2011

What effect do interest-rate changes have on economic growth? Most studies suggest that the answer is “not much”. This column points out that a lot of these studies use US data from the early 1980s when monetary policy was under the “Volcker experiment”. When this episode is excluded, this column finds that the implied contribution of policy shocks to historical US business cycle fluctuations is much larger than found in much of the literature.

Antonello D’Agostino, Paolo Surico, 18 April 2011

What does inflation predictability reveal about the conduct of monetary policy? This column examines the ability of money growth and output growth to forecast inflation across a century of US data. It uncovers a robust link between the nature of the monetary regimes and the ability to predict inflation several quarters ahead.

Raphael Auer, 21 February 2011

This column says that low US inflation over the last 15 years is partly attributable to cheap Chinese imports. It argues that if the US trade deficit is reduced – via either Chinese inflation or a nominal appreciation of the renminbi – this disinflationary effect will be reduced. It says that the resulting inflationary impulse could be severe.

James Reade, Ulrich Volz, 18 February 2011

China is grappling with rising inflation. This column argues that the Chinese government, instead of focusing on micro-managing the economy, should grant its central bank room for further reform of its monetary policy. To make more efficient use of the interest-rate instrument, China's policymakers will need to further loosen the dollar peg.

Domingo Cavallo, Fernando Díaz, 17 February 2011

With growing inflation in China, policymakers are facing tough decisions. This column argues that if the government is to curb inflation without allowing for the deflation of the tradables, it should do so though sector focused policies. Monetary policy is already committed to the objective of preventing deflation of the tradables and to dampen the credit cycle that is behind asset bubbles.

Nicolas Groshenny, 02 February 2011

Was monetary policy in the US too easy between 2002 and 2006? This column argues "no”. It shows that the large and persistent deviations from the Taylor rule over that period were indeed consistent with the pursuit of the Federal Reserve's dual mandate.

Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Olivier Coibion, 28 January 2011

As the US economy recovers in fits and starts, attention is turning to exit strategies. How will the Fed unwind its quantitative easing? This column presents evidence of substantial levels of policy inertia in monetary policy. It says that we should not expect rapid policy changes in the near future – barring clear signs of economic distress.

Luis Catão, Roberto Chang, 27 January 2011

Rising food prices once again pose central banks a tricky question. How far should they ignore food price inflation? This column suggests that food tends to have stronger predictive power on global inflation cycles than oil. The problem is more severe in emerging markets where consumption basket weights for food are two or three times larger than in rich nations. Central banks should pay close attention.

Syed Basher, 24 December 2010

The controversial decision to grant the 2022 FIFA World Cup to Qatar is set to provide the country with billions of dollars of revenue. This column argues that one overlooked consequence will be inflationary pressure and suggests “World Cup bonds”, among other tools, could help Qatar keep price rises in check.

Raphael Auer, Andreas Fischer, 05 December 2010

Over the past two decades, Western European trade has become increasingly integrated with emerging economies. This column uses a novel empirical technique to show that import competition from East Asian low-wage countries – in particular China – has dampened inflation in five Western European nations. Increased integration with Turkey and Central and Eastern Europe, meanwhile, has had little effect on inflation.

Roger Farmer, 08 November 2010

CEPR Discussion Paper 8100 re-examines the ability of old-Keynesian and new-Keynesian models to cope with persistence of unemployment. The author argues the an import input of persistent unemployment is the "animal spirits" of the unemployed. He tests an old-Keynesian model in which the Phillips curve is replaced by a belief function and finds it a better fit for the data than new-Keynesian variants.

Luis Viceira, John Campbell, Adi Sunderam, 27 October 2010

The historically low yields on Treasury bonds are the hallmark of a bubble, according to some commentators. This column analyses the relationship between bond yields, the stock market, and inflation over the past 50 years. It finds that the riskiness of nominal bonds changes over time and that investors and policymakers can use the changing stock-bond correlation as a real-time measure of inflation expectations.

Harald Uhlig, Pedro Teles, 18 October 2010

As the limits of fiscal policy become obvious, monetary policy tools look increasingly attractive to policymakers. Discussion Paper 8049 re-examines the evidence for quantity theory and finds that the textbook relationship between average inflation and the growth rate of money is tenuous in many cases. The authors caution policymakers not to over-interpret the conclusion of quantity theory.

André Meier, 21 September 2010

What happens to inflation during a downturn? This column documents the behaviour of inflation during 25 episodes of persistent large output gaps in 14 advanced economies over the last 40 years. It finds that such episodes bring about significant disinflation, although inflation tends to bottom out at low positive rates. Recent developments in advanced economies appear consistent with this disinflationary effect.

Wendy Carlin, David Soskice, 23 August 2010

The aftermath of the global crisis has highlighted the need to reassess outdated open economy models like the Mundell-Fleming model. The authors of CEPR DP7979 simplify an unwieldy New Keynesian model to help non-specialists and policymakers analyze key challenges of macroeconomic policymaking in an open economy, including CPI inflation targeting and exchange rate overshooting.

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Events

  • 17 - 18 August 2019 / Peking University, Beijing / Chinese University of Hong Kong – Tsinghua University Joint Research Center for Chinese Economy, the Institute for Emerging Market Studies at Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, the Guanghua School of Management at Peking University, the Stanford Center on Global Poverty and Development at Stanford University, the School of Economics and Management at Tsinghua University, BREAD, NBER and CEPR
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