Eleonora Granziera, Markus Sihvonen, 26 November 2020

High short-term interest rates predict domestic currency appreciation and low excess returns for long-term bonds. These facts are at odds with two textbook conditions describing the relationship between different maturity interest rates and exchange rates: uncovered interest parity (UIP) and the expectations hypothesis. This column explains that both conditions can be reconciled with the data if agents are assumed to have sticky rather than perfectly rational expectations concerning short rates. It also demonstrates how this empirically motivated change in model assumptions has broad implications for interpreting the effects of monetary policy on exchange rates and yield curves.  

Massimo Minesso Ferrari, Arnaud Mehl, Livio Stracca, 12 October 2020

The majority of central banks around the world are working on their own digital currency. This column argues that central bank digital currencies would not only have domestic macroeconomic and financial implications for the issuing economy, they would also have implications for the rest of the world. In particular, the unique characteristics of a central bank digital currency, if used internationally, would create a new ‘super charged’ uncovered interest parity condition which would induce stronger international linkages in a quantitatively relevant way. 

Matthieu Bussière, Menzie Chinn, Laurent Ferrara, Jonas Heipertz, 05 July 2018

The ‘Fama puzzle’ is the finding that ex post depreciation and interest differentials are negatively correlated, contrary to what theory suggests. This column re-examines the puzzle for eight advanced country exchange rates against the US dollar, over the period up to February 2016. The rejection of the joint hypothesis of uncovered interest parity and rational expectations still occurs, but with much less frequency. In contrast to earlier findings, the Fama regression coefficient is positive and large in the period after the Global Crisis, but survey-based measures of exchange rate expectations reveal greater evidence in favour of uncovered interest parity.

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