Stephen Byrne, Jonathan Rice, 19 June 2018

While the effect of Brexit on trade between the UK and the remaining EU member states has received considerable attention, to date little work has considered the issue of non-tariff barriers. This column explores how increased documentary compliance and border delays will affect EU members’ exports to the UK. Time-sensitive goods are found to be most at risk of suffering from increases in non-tariff barriers. Based on current trade composition, Latvia, Ireland, and Denmark are the trading partners that will be most affected.

Cevat Giray Aksoy, Christopher S. Carpenter, Jefferson Frank, Matt L. Huffman, 13 June 2018

Earnings gaps and ‘glass ceilings’ have been extensively documented for women and racial minorities. This column explores whether similar limits to advancement are present for sexual minorities, using data from the UK. Although gay men are found to be more likely than similar heterosexual men to report managerial authority, they seem to be restricted to low-level managerial positions, with little representation at higher levels. Similar glass ceiling effects are found for lesbians and bisexual adults, and the evidence is suggestive of discrimination playing a role. 

Jonathan Portes, 09 June 2018

Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Tho Pham, Oleksandr Talavera, 02 June 2018

The rise of social media has profoundly affected how people acquire and process information. Using Twitter data on the Brexit referendum and the 2016 US presidential election, this column studies how social media bots shape public opinion and voting outcomes. Bots have a tangible effect on the tweeting activity of humans, but the degree of their influence depends on whether they provide information consistent with humans’ priors. The findings suggest that effect of bots was likely marginal, but possibly large enough to affect voting outcomes in the two elections.

Alan de Bromhead, Alan Fernihough, Markus Lampe, Kevin O'Rourke, 22 May 2018

The literature has identified several stylised facts which characterise the nature and causes of the collapse in international trade during 2008 and 2009. This column uses detailed, commodity-specific information on UK imports between 1929 and 1933 to document several similarities between the trade collapses of the Great Depression and the Great Recession. The findings are in line with theories emphasising the composition of expenditure changes during major economic crises, or the relative sizes of firms operating closer to or further away from the margin between exporting or not.

Giordano Mion, 04 May 2018

Ten years on from the Global Crisis, productivity growth in the UK lags behind that in economies such as France and Germany. Giordano Mion shares his work on why this 'productivity puzzle' exists. The production capacity of manufacturers has not fallen much since 2008, but demand has faltered. This video was recorded at the 2018 RES Conference.

Jonathan Portes, 06 April 2018

Much public and policy concern has focused on the distributional impacts of immigration – in particular, potential negative impacts on employment and wages for low-skilled workers. This column summarises evidence and draws conclusions from the now considerable literature on the impact of migration to the UK on the economy and labour market, including the potential economic impacts of Brexit-induced reductions in migration.

David Miles, 23 March 2018

The housing market faces major challenges in both the short and long run in terms of affordability, price variability, ownership structures, financing, and their impacts upon wider macroeconomic stability. This column summarises a conference on lessons for the future of housing, jointly organised by the Brevan Howard Centre for Financial Analysis at Imperial College Business School and CEPR.

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This one-day conference will bring together researchers and policymakers working on the economic consequences of Brexit. We invite submissions of papers and expressions of interest in attending. We would particularly welcome papers providing empirical evidence on the effects of the Brexit vote on the UK economy and novel studies of the potential future consequences of Brexit.

The conference will take place on September 19 in London and will be hosted by the Centre for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics. It is part of a series of events funded by the ESRC-sponsored UK in a Changing Europe initiative. The conference is open to attendees who are not presenting papers.

Submissions, requests for funding from PhD students and expressions of interest in attending the conference should be sent to [email protected] by May 18, 2018. Preliminary drafts of papers are welcome.

Rain Newton-Smith, 02 February 2018

Low productivity continues to plague the UK economy. Rain Newton-Smith, Chief Economist at the CBI, discusses how greater and better-targeted investment, along with improved taxation, lie at the heart of resolving this. This video was recorded at the RELTIF book launch held in London in January 2018.

Wen Chen, Bart Los, Philip McCann, Raquel Ortega-Argiles , Mark Thissen, Frank van Oort, 19 December 2017

Analyses of the impact of various types of Brexit at the national level hide a lot of regional economic heterogeneity. This column deploys a new interregional dataset to quantify the shares of regional labour income that are exposed to the implications of Brexit for trade, taking into account the indirect effects of supply chain relations. The results show that much more is at stake for UK regions than for the rest of the EU, with the exception of Ireland.

Antonin Bergeaud, Gilbert Cette, Rémy Lecat, 04 September 2017

Over the 20th century, GDP growth was mainly driven by total factor productivity growth. Since the mid-2000s, however, productivity growth has been in decline. This column explores the history and future of growth focusing on four developed economies: the US, the Eurozone, the UK, and Japan. Simulated scenarios for the 21st century show a wide range of potential growth outcomes, dependent on whether total factor productivity growth stays indefinitely low, and whether the digital economy delivers a new productivity growth wave.

, 01 August 2017

How is wealth distributed in society? This video discusses the differences between the rich and the poor, and how it has evolved in the last 50 years. This video was produced for the Centre for Economic Performance (LSE).

Howard Smith, Øyvind Thomassen, 24 July 2017

Many consumers buy multiple types of goods from a single location (or firm) to save on shopping costs, turning these goods into pricing complements. Using data from the UK, this column shows that the internalisation of these complementary effects by supermarkets greatly improves the competitiveness of grocery supply. It also argues that one-stop shoppers have a greater pro-competitive impact on supermarket pricing than multi-stop shoppers.

Anna Vignoles, 07 June 2017

In international tests, the UK system performs quite well. In this video, Anna Vignoles underlines that this is the result of multiple policies, rather than a single one. This video was recorded at the Royal Economic Society Annual Conference held in Bristol in April 2017.

Jon Danielsson, Robert Macrae, Eva Micheler, 31 May 2017

Brexit is likely to cause considerable disruption for financial markets. Some worry that it may also increase systemic risk. This column revisits the debate and argues that an increase in systemic risk is unlikely. While legal ‘plumbing’ and institutional and regulatory equivalence are of concern, systemic risk is more likely to fall due to increased financial fragmentation and caution by market participants in the face of uncertainty. 

Wouter den Haan, Martin Ellison, Ethan Ilzetzki, Michael McMahon, Ricardo Reis, 30 May 2017

Real hourly wage growth has behaved quite differently across countries over the past ten years. This column describes how the majority view of the latest Centre for Macroeconomics and CEPR expert survey is that low growth of real wages has had a positive impact on European employment rates during the recovery phase of the Great Recession. A strong majority of respondents also agrees that the dire performance of UK real wage growth relative to the big Eurozone economies is in large part due to the UK’s labour market policies, which provide workers with comparatively weak protection.

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