Jeegar Kakkad, Christina Palmou, David Britto, James Browne, 10 July 2021

The Covid pandemic has helped to loosen the binds that previously tied a job to a specific geography and created a new class of work in the UK. ‘Anywhere jobs’ are non-routine service sector jobs that can be done from anywhere in the world, potentially for cheaper. This column shows that one in five workers in the UK are in an anywhere job and, in contrast to the past when the pressure was on semi-skilled workers, it is relatively highly skilled workers in non-routine roles that are now vulnerable to the pressures of technology and globalisation.

Joan Costa-Font, 29 June 2021

Covid-19 vaccines exert large positive spillover effects beyond their protective effects for individuals, and thus their value far exceeds their costs. But these benefits are only realised if enough people receive both doses, so policymakers need to ensure appropriate incentives are in place to mitigate vaccine hesitancy. This column explores the potential of different incentives, arguing that creating a narrative of social esteem around being vaccinated may be the most effective way to ensure widespread uptake.

Nicholas Bloom, Paul Mizen, Shivani Taneja, 15 June 2021

The COVID-19 pandemic prompted a collective shift to working from home. This column argues that though the shift was surprisingly easy, returning to the office will be hard. New evidence from a survey of 2,500 employees in the UK shows a preference in favour of home working 2-3 days a week, with lingering concerns of overcrowded transport and offices. But allowing workers to choose when to work from home will leave empty offices Monday and Friday, and many tasks such as large group meetings are more effective in person than online. Hybrid working will be the solution.

Geraldine Blanchard-Rohner, Bruno Caprettini, Dominic Rohner, Hans-Joachim Voth, 01 June 2021

As COVID-19 vaccination programmes accelerate across the industrialised world, vaccination hesitancy is rapidly emerging as a key challenge. This column explores the relationship between pre-pandemic intensive care unit capacity and attitudes towards the COVID-19 vaccine in the UK. Despite widespread pre-pandemic scepticism about vaccines in general, willingness to become vaccinated against COVID-19 overall was strikingly high, even amongst those who rejected vaccines before the pandemic. The results point to a surprising synergy: where the emergency care systems of public healthcare providers were less strained during the early days of the COVID-19 epidemic, vaccination hesitancy is systematically less today. 

Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes, Agnese Romiti, 15 May 2021

Attracting international students is critical for public universities in the UK increasingly facing funding cuts and a diminishing domestic youth population. This column discusses how Brexit may have affected students’ willingness to study in the UK and the factors likely driving the students’ choices. Brexit significantly lowered applications from EU students, especially for science, technology, engineering and mathematics subjects and for more selective institutions. International student enrolments also dropped, substantiating concerns regarding the ability to attract international talent.

Jan I. Haaland, Ian Wooton, 14 May 2021

The changes in the UK’s trading relationship with the EU are likely to have widespread effects, many of which are yet to be understood in full. This column introduces the issue of compliance with rules of origin requirements within free trade agreements. The authors argue that complying with these rules can present firms with additional production costs that would not have been present had the UK remained a part of the EU.

John O'Hagan, 04 May 2021

The presence of prize-winning young economists among faculty can be seen as a marker of a university’s status in the field of economics, particularly when awards are given on the basis of researchers being published in ‘top’ journals. This column examines where recent young economist prize winners studied for their doctorates and identifies a clear pattern of dominance, with the US – particularly Boston – the clear frontrunner.

Lauren Cohen, Umit Gurun, Danielle Li, 14 March 2021

Covid-19 has revealed the importance of quick, efficient, but safe medical innovation. The development of various vaccines, as well as a range of treatments, have been tech tools in the fight against the public health and economic crises. This column explores the impact of informal deadlines within the drugs market, arguing that such regulatory pressures can end up distorting product safety and marketability. The findings highlight the need for well-designed regulatory systems which allow medical innovators to move swiftly but safely during the next health shock.

Vincent Aussilloux, Adam Baïz, Matthieu Garrigue, Philippe Martin, Dimitris Mavridis, 19 February 2021

The Covid-19 crisis has presented policymakers across the euro area with an unprecedented challenge, not least of all because the shock has come to both the supply side and the demand side of the economy. This column presents a preliminary analysis of different nations’ responses so far, focusing on which measures have been deployed to address each side of the economic shock and where a ‘mixed approach’ has been taken to work in tandem. At a time where coordinated action may be needed, there is a concerning level of inconsistency in strategy. 

Gianni De Fraja, Jesse Matheson, James Rockey, Daniel Timms, 11 February 2021

The Covid-19 outbreak has led to an unprecedented rise in the number of jobs done from home. This column discusses the implications of this shift for locally consumed services such as restaurants, hairdressers, and gyms. Using precise data on the location of homes and offices of workers across the UK, it finds that there is large heterogeneity in the impact of working from home on these businesses. While city centres suffered a significant drop in demand for services, suburban neighbourhoods experienced an increase in demand. Policies aimed at helping the service industry should take this diverse impact into account.

Romesh Vaitilingam, 08 February 2021

The UK’s exit from the EU was finally completed on 1 January 2021. The IGM Forum at Chicago Booth invited its panels of leading European and US economists to express their views on the likely long-term effects of Brexit on both the UK economy and the aggregate economy of the remaining 27 EU members. As this column reports, a strong majority (86% of the panellists) agrees that the UK economy is likely to be at least several percentage points smaller in 2030 than it otherwise would have been. Views are more divided on the EU-27 economy: nearly a quarter of respondents agree that it will be at least several percentage points smaller in 2030 than it otherwise would have been; but more than a third are uncertain; while 41% do not expect the impact to be that strongly negative.

Mariacristina De Nardi, Giulio Fella, Gonzalo Paz-Pardo, 07 February 2021

The optimal size and structure of government benefit programmes crucially depend on households’ income risk and their ability to self-insure against it. This column demonstrates that in the UK, earning dynamics, such as income risk and shock persistence, differ substantially depending on age and position in the income distribution. Taking these dynamics into account when evaluating benefit policies is of crucial importance, as it dramatically changes the estimated welfare improvements. When the dynamics are incorporated, the 2016 reform of the UK’s benefit system is found to have been welfare-improving on average. 

Thorvaldur Gylfason, 06 February 2021

Trust is a crucial norm in any democratic system. And respect for the truth, as well as support for the institutions that uphold it, are fundamental for a functioning market economy. This column argues that recent controversies in the US, as well as the UK, have seen this norm begin to erode, and that this may have negative effects for democracies and economies worldwide. Citing evidence from Iceland, the author argues that unless reforms are implemented soon, advocates for democracy may see greater power slide into the hands of those who propagate mistruths for their own material gain.

Alejandro Graziano, Kyle Handley, Nuno Limão, 26 January 2021

Following the Brexit referendum five years ago, firms in the UK and also those in the EU and other countries operated in an environment with increased uncertainty over future trade policies. This column presents evidence of the detrimental effects of this uncertainty on trade in the UK before any changes to trade policy had taken place. Studying the period after the Conservative Party won the general election in May 2015 until just after the Brexit referendum in June 2016, it finds that an increasing probability of Brexit significantly reduced UK export values and product entry, while increasing product exit.

Stephen Machin, Sandra McNally, Camille Terrier, Guglielmo Ventura, 23 December 2020

England introduced University Technical Colleges – hybrid education institutions which combine general and vocational education – in 2010. This column presents the results from the first evaluation of the causal effect of attending such a college on student academic and vocational achievement, and on eventual labour market outcomes. While college enrolment can have positive effects on the probability of studying a STEM subject at university, the age that a student enrolls plays a key part in determining their overall attainment.

Simeon Djankov, Tea Trumbic, Eva (Yiwen) Zhang, 14 December 2020

The global pandemic has exacerbated the gender pay gap for many, but not all, advanced economies. This column examines evidence from eight countries to show that certain policy responses to the pandemic have better served women’s participation in the labour force than others – notably those tailored to flexible working to accommodate home and childcare responsibilities, as well as those serving industries with greater participation by women. Such policies should be taken into account, especially as historically the reintegration of women into the labour force can take time after a crisis.

Maja Adena, Ruben Enikolopov, Maria Petrova, Hans-Joachim Voth, 19 November 2020

In conflicts, adversaries aim for victory by using both direct and indirect forces to break the enemy’s will to resist. During WWII, Allied forces used strategic bombing and radio propaganda to undermine German morale. This column compares German domestic resistance to the Nazi regime, based on treason trial records, with the monthly volume of bombing and the locations of BBC radio transmitters. Where radio reception was better and Allied air forces bombed more heavily, German domestic resistance was markedly more likely, despite the draconian punishments for even the mildest transgressions.

Alex Rees-Jones, John D'Attoma, Amedeo Piolatto, Luca Salvadori, 04 November 2020

While few groups have weathered the Covid-19 crisis unscathed, recent evidence suggests that the damage has been especially extreme among the economically vulnerable. This column evaluates changing attitudes towards welfare spending as a result of the pandemic. The findings suggest that people living in areas most severely hit by the crisis are increasingly supportive of long-term reforms to the welfare system. Despite having access to relatively widespread welfare spending, European citizens are dissatisfied with the safety net systems currently in place. 

Thiess Buettner, Boryana Madzharova, 27 October 2020

Facing the economic consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic, governments all over the world are considering providing a fiscal stimulus. A potentially powerful instrument to do so is a broad-based consumption tax such as VAT. This column argues that changes in VAT may have some effect in stimulating spending on certain consumer durable goods such as household appliances. However, these effects may be heterogenous across different product types and the timing and perceived credibility of the announcements are also important factors for policymakers to consider.

Alexander Chudik, Kamiar Mohaddes, M. Hashem Pesaran, Mehdi Raissi, Alessandro Rebucci, 19 October 2020

The Covid-19 pandemic is unprecedented in its global reach and impact, posing formidable challenges to policymakers and to the empirical analysis of its direct and indirect effects within the interconnected global economy. This column uses a ‘threshold-augmented multi-country econometric model’ to help quantify the impact of the Covid-19 shock along several dimensions. The results of the analysis show that the global recession will be long lasting, with no country escaping its impact regardless of their mitigation strategy. These findings call for a coordinated multi-country policy response to the pandemic.



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