Jon Danielsson, Robert Macrae, Jean-Pierre Zigrand, 24 June 2016

Brexit creates new opportunities and new risks for the British and EU financial markets. Both could benefit, but a more likely outcome is a fall in the quality of financial regulations, more inefficiency, more protectionism, and more systemic risk.

Anatole Kaletsky, 22 June 2016

If the UK leaves the EU, what will happen to the UK economy? In this video, Anatole Kaletsky argues that Brexit would be economic suicide, or at least self-harm. A trade agreement that grants access to the Single Market implies conceding political sovereignty, contributing to the EU budget, and free movement of labour. This video was recorded during the “Economics of the UK’s EU Membership” conference organised by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research in February 2016 and held in London.

Karl Whelan, 20 June 2016

A large amount of business done in the City is linked to the UK’s membership of the EU. In this video, Karl Whelan discusses the impact of Brexit for the UK’s financial sector. He also argues that leaving the EU would take away the UK’s voice in shaping future legislation, which it would nonetheless have to follow in order to retain access to the Single Market. This video was recorded during the “Economics of the UK’s EU Membership” conference organised by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research in February 2016 and held in London.

Nicholas Crafts, 15 June 2016

If the UK leaves the EU, what's next for the economy? In this video, Nicholas Crafts of the University of Warwick discusses the impact of EU membership on the British economy. The type of agreement the UK would reach outside the EU is most important, and the risks outweigh the potential gains. This video was shot during the “Economics of the UK’s EU Membership” conference organised by the National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) on 23 February 2016 and held in London.

John Springford, 14 June 2016

To the EU’s critics, the cost of regulations emanating from Brussels have become so great that they outweigh the – as they see it – modest benefits of single market membership. In this video, John Springford (CER) tests this claim against the evidence. He points out that the EU’s regulations and directives reduce the cost of trade between member-states – and that critics fail to take that into account. This video was recorded in June 2016 during the “Economics of the UK-EU Relationship” workshop at Brunel University London.

Corrado Macchiarelli, 14 June 2016

The history of European integration has been characterized by several ‘stops-and-goes’ with considerable support on political grounds. In this video, Corrado Macchiarelli (Brunel) discusses the role of European integration for the future of the EU-UK relations. Integration, consistent with the idea of ‘completing’ the European Monetary Union (hence, a ‘Genuine Economic and Monetary Union’- GEMU) would affect the UK as well, irrespective of whether it will withdraw from the EU. Costs and benefits of EU membership should hence take GEMU into account. This video was recorded in June 2016 during the “Economics of the UK-EU Relationship” workshop at Brunel University London.

Peter Egger, 14 June 2016

The European Union (EU) spends a large share of its budget on regional policy, what are the implications for the UK? In this video, Peter Egger (ETH Zurich) concludes that overall regional transfers across the EU give value for money. However, there is room for further improvement in the design of EU regional transfers to make them more effective. He argues UK regions have benefited from EU regional policy over the last decades and that there is uncertainty for those regions that benefit from substantial amounts of EU funding (e.g. Cornwall) over what would replace those funds after an eventual Brexit. This video was recorded in June 2016 during the “Economics of the UK-EU Relationship” workshop at Brunel University London.

Randolph Bruno, 14 June 2016

European Union facilitates the inflows of Foreign Direct Investment into its members. In this video, Randolph Bruno (UCL) discusses the results of his research on how inflows of investment capital from foreign countries (FDI) into the EU Members has been on average 28 percentage points higher than non-EU members in the 1985 to 2013 period. He also argues that the UK is one of the countries for which the effect is higher than this average. This video was recorded in June 2016 during the “Economics of the UK-EU Relationship” workshop at Brunel University London.

Angus Armstrong, 14 June 2016

How does the current UK financial infrastructure contrast with how such infrastructure might look like post Brexit? In this video, Angus Armstrong (NIESR) focuses on the role of financial services. He noted that the UK has a systemically large domestic banking system (different from e.g. Luxembourg) so regulation plays differently. He highlighted the issue of the of emergency liquidity assistance provision. Unusually, Eurozone infrastructure extents to the EEA, which allows the UK to be centre of Euro wholesale finance. This video was recorded in June 2016 during the “Economics of the UK-EU Relationship” workshop at Brunel University London.

Nicholas Crafts, 14 June 2016

The impact of EU membership on British growth performance both past and future is somewhat controversial. In this video, Nicholas Crafts (Warwick) gives his assessment of the evidence. He suggests that the UK’s entry into the EU in the 1970s had strong positive effects in particular because it addressed issues of weak competition but that Brexit now would lower the income level through adverse effects on trade without addressing any of the 21st-century supply-side problems that hold UK growth back. This video was recorded in June 2016 during the “Economics of the UK-EU Relationship” workshop at Brunel University London.

Nauro Campos, Fabrizio Coricelli, 14 June 2016

The partnership between the UK and the EU has famously been described as “awkward”. A benefit of the Brexit debate is that it has spawned an enormous amount of research addressing issues surrounding the relationship that have been taken for granted for probably too long. This column takes stock of new research presented at a recent conference on the UK-EU relationship.

Matteo Galizzi, George Loewenstein, 14 June 2016

Although not a nudge, the ‘soda tax’ in the UK can nonetheless be justified in part on behavioural grounds. This column analyses the potential effectiveness of the soda tax in reducing consumption. As a behavioural instrument, the tax does not go far enough, and is in fact regressive.  A comprehensive junk food tax should be introduced instead, accompanied by nudges, ‘healthy’ subsidies, and regulation of ‘super-sizing’ practices.

Stefan Gerlach, Edoardo Di Giamberardino, 10 June 2016

The outcome of the UK’s referendum on EU membership could have a significant effect on sterling. This column estimates the potential size of this effect by looking at the relationship between daily changes in the sterling exchange rate and bookmakers’ odds of Brexit. Movements of between 5% and 15% seem plausible.

James Banks, Carl Emmerson, Gemma Tetlow, 07 May 2016

Many countries are increasing the age at which people can start claiming state-funded pensions. One objection often raised is that such policies are unfair because some will be too unhealthy to remain in paid work. This column compares employment rates in England of older people today to those of earlier generations, and also to those of younger people today. These comparisons suggest that a significant minority of older people appear to be unable to work on the grounds of health alone. 

Juergen Matthes, Berthold Busch, 27 April 2016

Studies attempting the quantify the economic effects for the UK of Brexit have come up with conflicting results – ranging from significant advantages to marked losses. Using a meta-analysis, this column shows this can be explained by different methods and assumptions, as well as varying coverage of effects. The forward-looking, model-based studies are unable to capture many positive effects of economic integration on welfare and growth. In comparison, backward-looking studies tend to find significantly larger trade effects of economic integration agreements. The meta-analysis suggests that in case of Brexit, GDP losses for the UK in the range of 10% or more cannot be ruled out in the long run.

Shamena Anwar, Patrick Bayer, Randi Hjalmarsson, 19 April 2016

Women remain underrepresented in many aspects of political and civic life. This column explores the empirical significance of representation, exploiting a 1919 law that made women eligible to serve on English juries. Archival court data show that female representation boosted convictions in sex offenses cases. The magnitude of results highlights how dramatically underrepresentation can influence the functioning of civic institutions.

Julia Tanndal, Daniel Waldenström, 13 April 2016

Financial deregulation in the US has been shown to be associated with rising income inequality over the past four decades. This column looks at the income effects of financial deregulation in the UK and Japan during the 1980s and 1990s. As in the US, deregulation substantially increased the shares of income going to the very top of the distribution. These findings highlight the importance of financial markets in the evolution of income inequality in society. 

Christian Hilber, Wouter Vermeulen, 10 April 2016

It costs a relatively large amount of money to buy a house in the UK – something readers from the UK will almost certainly agree with. But economists differ over why this is. This column argues that strict planning regulations are a prime culprit for sky-high prices and that without any real regulatory change, it is the young that will suffer.

Elias Einiö, Henry Overman, 07 April 2016

Areas experiencing poor economic performance are often targeted by governments with programmes aimed at improving employment. However, there are concerns that any increases in employment come at the cost of reduced employment elsewhere. This column examines the displacement effects of one such programme in the UK. While employment increased within the targeted areas, there were comparable decreases in employment just outside the areas’ boundaries. These findings suggest place-based policies should focus on traded activities that are less susceptible to local displacement effects.

Swati Dhingra, Hanwei Huang, Gianmarco Ottaviano, Thomas Sampson, John Van Reenen, 04 April 2016

The economic consequences of leaving the EU are at the heart of the Brexit debate. This column studies how changes in trade and fiscal transfers to the EU following Brexit would affect living standards in the UK. Across a range of scenarios, Brexit leads to lower income per capita, but the magnitude of the loss depends on what trade policies the UK adopts post-Brexit. To minimise the economic costs of Brexit, the UK would have to remain closely integrated into the Single Market. 

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