Mushfiq Mobarak, 31 May 2019

In this Yale Insights animation, Mushfiq Mobarak summarises six observations from economic research about how immigration creates economic benefits.

Richard Blundell, 22 March 2019

Richard Blundell of University College London discusses the use of microdata to inform policy.

Will Abel, Silvana Tenreyro, Gregory Thwaites, 23 January 2019

Concentrated labour markets, in which workers have few choices of potential employers, reduce the wages of workers when they are not covered by collective wage bargaining agreements. But these types of agreements have become much less common in the past 20 years. This column uses employee-level data to show that even though UK labour markets have not on average become much more concentrated, concentration – which varies a great deal across regions and industries – is having a bigger impact on wages than before.

Cevat Giray Aksoy, Ralph De Haas, 21 January 2019

Technological innovation can help to shift labour from sectors with low levels of productivity (such as agriculture) to higher-productivity sectors (manufacturing and, increasingly, services), with a profound impact on the nature of work and the types of skills that are in demand in the workplace. This column examines how this transformation is impacting jobs and employment across emerging Europe. The findings suggest that robotisation can explain only 13% of the total decline in the employment rate observed in these countries between 2010 and 2016.

Hâle Utar, 06 December 2018

The impact of trade shocks on labour market shifts is usually studied in the context of re-training and social welfare frictions. Using evidence from Denmark, this column shows how workers can experience long-run reductions in earnings no matter how easy it is to change sector. A sudden and obligatory shift toward a new sector may, by its nature, generate some worker dissatisfaction.

Lant Pritchett, 16 November 2018

In the developed world borders are being closed and popular resistance to immigration is rising. Yet Lant Pritchett of Harvard University tells Tim Phillips that the rate of migration from poor to rich countries is actually five times too low. Planned mass migration of unskilled labour, he argues, would make everyone better off.

Ian Goldin, Benjamin Nabarro, 24 October 2018

Anti-migration sentiment has been rising across Europe. This column shows that the economic impact of migration is positive, but depends almost entirely on the policies implemented to ensure that migrants can be productive and the extent to which the positive economic consequences of migration are distributed across individuals. Unless the rhetoric of a perceived cultural and economic threat posed by migrants is countered effectively, economies stand to lose out substantially from the implementation of anti-immigration policies.

Christopher Busch, David Domeij, Fatih Guvenen, Rocío Madera, 17 October 2018

Workers experience income volatility over their lifetime due to changes in both individual and macroeconomic conditions. Using panel data from the US, Germany, and Sweden, this column analyses how the probability of income losses and gains changes systematically over the business cycle. Downside risk increases in recessions, while upside chance is reduced. However, tax and transfer programmes blunt some of the largest declines in incomes in recessions.

Ambar Narayan, Roy Van der Weide, 02 July 2018

Intergenerational mobility is important for both fairness and economic efficiency in a society. This column uses data from a new global study spanning five decades to show that average relative mobility is lower in developing economies, with no sign that the gap with developed countries is getting smaller. In addition, income mobility in several developing economies is much lower than their levels of educational mobility would lead us to expect. Labour market deficiencies appear to be contributing to this gap between mobility in education and income. 

Alessandra Casarico, Giovanni Facchini, Tommaso Frattini, 28 June 2018

European countries have recently experienced an extraordinary inflow of asylum seekers. Using a theoretical framework and US data, this column studies the key economic triggers which prompt policymakers to implement immigration legalisation programmes. It shows that the more restricted the occupational opportunities of undocumented immigrants and the smaller the fiscal leakage to undocumented immigrants via the welfare state, the more desirable an amnesty is. 

Antonio Fatás, 16 June 2018

José Azar, Ioana Marinescu, Marshall Steinbaum, Bledi Taska, 07 June 2018

The effect of increasing product market concentration on the labour market is sometimes overlooked because the labour market is often assumed to be entirely competitive. This column discusses the definition of labour markets and analyses the circumstances in which employers have monopsonist power to set wages, thus contributing to the growing debate over whether market concentration might be one cause of stagnant wages and other labour trends. 

Andrea Bassanini, Federico Cingano, 16 April 2018

Structural reforms can trigger and sustain economic growth, but they can also present transitory costs that policymakers seek to avoid during economic downturns. This column analyses the short-term response of employment levels to product and labour market reforms. While reforms entail non-negligible transitory employment losses on average, the losses are smaller for reforms implemented during economic upswings and in countries with significant labour market dualism.

Grégory Claeys, André Sapir, 11 April 2018

It is only in the last decade that the EU has had an active policy to reintegrate workers who lost their jobs as a result of globalisation, through the European Globalisation Adjustment Fund. This column assesses the performance of the Fund and makes three recommendations to improve its effectiveness. To be more successful, the Fund should improve its monitoring and widen the scope of its usage.

Tolga Aksoy, Paolo Manasse, 23 March 2018

After 2008, labour markets in the euro area responded differently to the recessions and subsequent labour market reforms. This column uses data from 19 countries to show that labour and product market reforms speeded up the recovery from recession, but also reduced the resilience of employment to shocks. Because the resilience effect occurs first, deep reforms risk losing public support.

Benjamin Villena-Roldán, Stefano Banfi, 17 February 2018

Researchers often pick a random or a directed search model based on convenience and theoretical implications, but distinguishing between the two is important as many labour market regulations may be welfare-improving under random search, but not under directed search. This column uses data from Chile to show that job-seekers respond to information posted by employers, suggesting that policy design should consider the prescriptions of directed search models.  However, the evidence also shows that relevant features of these markets are not well captured by existing models.

Ayako Kondo, 21 November 2017

Economists have studied extensively the direct impacts of natural disasters on local labour markets, but less is known about the knock-on consequences for wider markets. This column argues that although supply chain disruptions caused by the Great East Japan Earthquake increased job separation and geographical shifts, the effects on employment status were weak. The long-run impact of the earthquake on the labour markets outside of the directly affected areas appears to be limited, despite public concerns at the time.

David Neumark, 09 October 2017

Studies of the employment effects of minimum wages have been wide-ranging, but a consensus proves elusive. This column summarises the existing literature and proposes some key questions to better inform policy in the context of minimum wages across different states in the US. Future areas for research should include understanding why different approaches yield different answers, as well as a recognition that there is not one minimum wage effect, but several across different contexts.

Hiromi Hara, 19 July 2017

Although the gender wage gap in Japan has been decreasing over the last 15 years, it remains large. This column shows that both the ‘glass ceiling’ and the ‘sticky floor’ exist in the Japanese labour market. The country’s human resource management system and a culture which rewards those who are willing to work outside of regular hours are to blame.

Masayuki Morikawa, 06 July 2017

Given the early stages of diffusion of many AI and robotic technologies, it is too early to measure the impact of these innovations on jobs. This column uses comprehensive survey data from Japan to measure the extent to which workers across different industries, levels of education, and occupations perceive their jobs to be at risk. Workers with adaptable skills acquired through higher education (particularly in science and engineering) or occupation-specific skills (particularly those in human-intensive personal services) are less worried about their jobs being replaced by AI and robotics.

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Events

  • 17 - 18 August 2019 / Peking University, Beijing / Chinese University of Hong Kong – Tsinghua University Joint Research Center for Chinese Economy, the Institute for Emerging Market Studies at Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, the Guanghua School of Management at Peking University, the Stanford Center on Global Poverty and Development at Stanford University, the School of Economics and Management at Tsinghua University, BREAD, NBER and CEPR
  • 19 - 20 August 2019 / Vienna, Palais Coburg / WU Research Institute for Capital Markets (ISK)
  • 29 - 30 August 2019 / Galatina, Italy /
  • 4 - 5 September 2019 / Roma Eventi, Congress Center, Pontificia Università Gregoriana Piazza della Pilotta, 4, Rome, Italy / European Center of Sustainable Development , CIT University
  • 9 - 14 September 2019 / Guildford, Surrey, UK / The University of Surrey

CEPR Policy Research