Emerging markets are especially vulnerable to a myriad of domestic and external risks. This column develops a framework to classify these risks based on their predictability and, hence, their insurability. As the probability of relatively large events increases, it becomes more difficult to insure against such risks. In the extreme case in which countries face truly unpredictable and impactful events (or ‘black swans’), they must rely on building broad-based resilience or resorting to ex-post aid.