Video Vox

Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe 08 March 2021

Markets don't work perfectly and stabilisation policies by governments and central banks are crucial. In her research, Stephanie Schmitt-Grohé looked at different policy options to address the unemployment crisis that hit in many countries as a result of the economic shock from the financial crisis of 2007-08.  One solution was to better regulate capital inflows: moderate wage growth in the boom years would have helped ameliorate the unemployment problem of the subsequent crisis.

Benedict Guttman-Kenney 03 March 2021

The UK's recovery is heavily weighted towards the “home counties” around outer London and the South. Utilising Fable Data: a real-time source of consumption data that is a highly correlated, leading indicator of Bank of England and Office for National Statistics data, Ben Guttman-Kenney and colleagues observe a stark contrast between strong online spending growth while offline spending contracts with patterns of regional difference in spending matching lockdown tier levels. To prevent such COVID-19-driven regional inequalities from becoming persistent they propose governments introduce temporary, regionally-targeted interventions in 2021.

You can read the full paper behind this research here: A Levelling Down and the COVID-19 Lockdowns: Uneven Regional Recovery in UK Consumer Spending John Gathergood, Fabian Gunzinger, Benedict Guttman-Kenney, Edika Quispe-Torreblanca, and Neil Stewart https://cepr.online/CE67

Michele Battisti 25 February 2021

Are schools triggering diffusion of Covid19? Michele Battisti talks to Tim Phillips about research that uses geolocalised microdata from Sicily to show schools contribute to a significant & positive increase in area cases. You can find the full paper, Schools opening and Covid-19 diffusion: evidence from geolocalized microdata by Emanuele Amodio, Michele Battisti, Andros Kourtellos, Giuseppe Maggio and Carmelo Massimo Maida, in this free issue of CEPR's Covid Economics Papers: cepr.online/CE65

Michael Kende 16 February 2021

Michael Kende (Graduate Institute) talks to Tim Phillips about the lack of digital trust in contact tracing apps which could help control the pandemic, save lives, and normalise our societies and how this is a major wake-up call.

Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan 09 February 2021

COVID-19 pandemic had a devastating effect on both lives and livelihoods in 2020. The arrival of effective vaccines can be a major game changer. However, vaccines are in short supply as of early 2021 and most of them are reserved for the advanced economies. Sebnem Kalemli-Özcan and colleagues find that advanced economies will pay the price in damage to their own economic recoveries if they fail to help developing countries with their vaccination programmes. You can read the paper here: The Economic Case for Global Vaccinations: An Epidemiological Model with International Production Networks Cem Cakmakli, Selva Demiralp, Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, Sevcan Yesiltas, Muhammed Yildirim CEPR DP No. 15710 January 2021

Anna Scherbina 03 February 2021

Though COVID vaccines are finally available, the rate at which they are administered is slow, and in the meantime the pandemic continues to claim about as many lives every day as the 9/11 tragedy. Anna Scherbina (Brandeis University) talks to Tim Phillips about an estimate that with the promised rate of vaccinations, if no additional non-pharmaceutical interventions are implemented, 406 thousand additional lives will be lost and the future cost of the pandemic will reach $2.4 trillion, or 11% of GDP. Using a cost-benefit analysis, she finds that a lockdown would be indeed optimal and, depending on the assumptions, it should last between two and four weeks and will generate a net benefit of up to $1.2 trillion.

You can find Anna's paper, Could the United States benefit from a lockdown? A cost-benefit analysis, in CEPR's Covid Economics Issue 65: 20 January 2021

Viral Acharya 26 January 2021

Viral Acharya talks to Tim Phillips about estimating the value of a COVID-19 cure using the behaviour of stock prices and a novel vaccine progress indicator. The value of a cure is worth between 5% and 15% of wealth and rises substantially with uncertainty surrounding the frequency and duration of the pandemic.

You can read the Covid economics Paper discussed, here: Covid Economics 61: 1–72.

Stefanie J. Huber 19 January 2021

Can private expenditures recover once social distancing restrictions are lifted or will the COVID-19 crisis have a sustained impact on consumer confidence, preferences, and, hence, spending? Steffi Huber (University of Amsterdam) talks to Tim Phillips

You can download Steffi's paper for free from CEPR is issue 59 of Covid Economics Papers: 'Is COVID-19 a consumption game changer? Evidence from a large-scale multi-country survey' (Alexander Hodbod, Cars Hommes, Stefanie J. Huber and Isabelle Salle) cepr.online/CE59

Difang Huang 06 January 2020

In his Covid Economics paper [Issue 59, Paper 4] , Difang Huang (Monash University) uses data from the United States to show that social distancing lowered the average daily infection cases by 12%, and provides evidence that the effects are heterogeneous in an individual's income, race, education, and political belief. Here he discusses these findings with CEPR's Tim Phillips. You can find his paper here: https://cepr.org/content/covid-economics-vetted-and-real-time-papers-

In Tim Phillip's last interview of 2020 for CEPR, he joins CEPR President Beatrice Weder di Mauro and Charles Wyplosz, editor of CEPR's influential Covid Economics Paper series, to look back at what has been an extraordinary year, both for CEPR and for the world in general.

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