The Economic Consequences of the War
We find ourselves faced with an unspeakable tragedy, a major war breaking out, and it takes place right in Europe. There are few certainties right now, but what is clear is that this war will have deep geopolitical and economic consequences which will be felt by all of us; the scars of this war will be deep and long lasting and they will infiltrate some of the foundations of the current world order.
Debate Moderators
Dominic Rohner
Fellow, Development EconomicsIn the face of tragedy, there is a role for science to play in understanding the economic consequences of what we witness and how to mitigate them. The purpose of this VoxEU debate page is to collect analytical contributions on the economic consequences of the War. As for all VoxEU columns, the contributions are analytical and evidence based.
The focus lies on a variety of dimensions linked to all fields of economics. First of all, there is a particular emphasis on major environmental consequences, such as the rethinking of energy policy and the acceleration of the transition towards green energy. This is also linked to issues of the resilience of global value chains in the face of war-induced deglobalization, as well as the global food production and markets that is hit hard by fighting in a major hub of worldwide grain production. Second, international economic consequences also encompass questions of financial (de)globalization, refugees and migration.
A third set of consequences of the war are rooted within political and public economics. In particular, European security and integration questions are at the forefront, as are issues linked to the impact of sanctions, and the fiscal costs and trade-offs. Fourth, macroeconomic effects of the war include shocks to reserve currencies and the international monetary system, as well as questions of inflation and monetary policy. Last but not least, the impacts of the war on education, health and human and social capital deserve a special emphasis.
Latest Contributions
Reducing bureaucratic hassle in Ukraine
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- Microeconomic regulation ![](../../../../../../../../../../var/folders/34/zq18d8kx7kbgby0j06p_j6t40000gn/T/TemporaryItems/NSIRD_screencaptureui_EM2XPo/Screenshot 2022-01-04 at 17.01.16.png)
- Ukraine Initiative
The European energy crisis and the consequences for the global natural gas market
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- Energy ![](../../../../../../../../../../var/folders/34/zq18d8kx7kbgby0j06p_j6t40000gn/T/TemporaryItems/NSIRD_screencaptureui_EM2XPo/Screenshot 2022-01-04 at 17.01.16.png)
- Ukraine Initiative
A central bank's voice rising above the roar of gunfire
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- Exchange Rates ![](../../../../../../../../../../var/folders/34/zq18d8kx7kbgby0j06p_j6t40000gn/T/TemporaryItems/NSIRD_screencaptureui_EM2XPo/Screenshot 2022-01-04 at 17.01.16.png)
- Ukraine Initiative
The impact of the war on human capital and productivity in Ukraine
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- Education ![](../../../../../../../../../../var/folders/34/zq18d8kx7kbgby0j06p_j6t40000gn/T/TemporaryItems/NSIRD_screencaptureui_EM2XPo/Screenshot 2022-01-04 at 17.01.16.png)
- Labour Markets ![](../../../../../../../../../../var/folders/34/zq18d8kx7kbgby0j06p_j6t40000gn/T/TemporaryItems/NSIRD_screencaptureui_EM2XPo/Screenshot 2022-01-04 at 17.01.16.png)
- Productivity and Innovation ![](../../../../../../../../../../var/folders/34/zq18d8kx7kbgby0j06p_j6t40000gn/T/TemporaryItems/NSIRD_screencaptureui_EM2XPo/Screenshot 2022-01-04 at 17.01.16.png)
- Ukraine Initiative
Ukraine’s resilience: How an administrative reform boosted social capital and trust in Ukrainian communities
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- Political Economy ![](../../../../../../../../../../var/folders/34/zq18d8kx7kbgby0j06p_j6t40000gn/T/TemporaryItems/NSIRD_screencaptureui_EM2XPo/Screenshot 2022-01-04 at 17.01.16.png)
- Politics and economics ![](../../../../../../../../../../var/folders/34/zq18d8kx7kbgby0j06p_j6t40000gn/T/TemporaryItems/NSIRD_screencaptureui_EM2XPo/Screenshot 2022-01-04 at 17.01.16.png)
- Ukraine Initiative
A war risks insurance mechanism for Ukraine
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![](../../../../../../../../../../var/folders/34/zq18d8kx7kbgby0j06p_j6t40000gn/T/TemporaryItems/NSIRD_screencaptureui_EM2XPo/Screenshot 2022-01-04 at 17.01.16.png)
- Financial Markets ![](../../../../../../../../../../var/folders/34/zq18d8kx7kbgby0j06p_j6t40000gn/T/TemporaryItems/NSIRD_screencaptureui_EM2XPo/Screenshot 2022-01-04 at 17.01.16.png)
- Politics and economics
Debate columns by Oleksiy Blinov & Simeon Djankov that have appeared in Ukrainian versions:
Как восстановить аграрный экспорт
Цена войны. Как российская агрессия скажется на главной ценности Украины – детях
Україна втрачає людей — наслідки демографічної кризи, яка виникла через війну з рф / НВ (nv.ua)
Скільки втратили український бізнес та держава через повномасштабне вторгнення РФ (biz.nv.ua)
Динамика зарплат и потери рабочих мест во время войны
Скільки економіка України втратила через блекаути та блокування портів Росією? Підрахунки економістів (Forbes.UA)
$4 млрд уже заподіяної шкоди, довгострокових витрат ще на $2 млрд. Яка ціна руйнування греблі Каховської ГЕС. Підсумував дослідник із фінансових ринків Сімеон Дянков
Video & Audio Contributions
War in Ukraine, impact in Africa. The effect of soaring energy and food prices
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- International trade ![](../../../../../../../../../../var/folders/34/zq18d8kx7kbgby0j06p_j6t40000gn/T/TemporaryItems/NSIRD_screencaptureui_EM2XPo/Screenshot 2022-01-04 at 17.01.16.png)
- Poverty and Income Inequality ![](../../../../../../../../../../var/folders/34/zq18d8kx7kbgby0j06p_j6t40000gn/T/TemporaryItems/NSIRD_screencaptureui_EM2XPo/Screenshot 2022-01-04 at 17.01.16.png)
- Ukraine Initiative
Russia under sanctions. The political economy of Putin's war in Ukraine
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- Global crisis ![](../../../../../../../../../../var/folders/34/zq18d8kx7kbgby0j06p_j6t40000gn/T/TemporaryItems/NSIRD_screencaptureui_EM2XPo/Screenshot 2022-01-04 at 17.01.16.png)
- Political Economy ![](../../../../../../../../../../var/folders/34/zq18d8kx7kbgby0j06p_j6t40000gn/T/TemporaryItems/NSIRD_screencaptureui_EM2XPo/Screenshot 2022-01-04 at 17.01.16.png)
- Politics and economics ![](../../../../../../../../../../var/folders/34/zq18d8kx7kbgby0j06p_j6t40000gn/T/TemporaryItems/NSIRD_screencaptureui_EM2XPo/Screenshot 2022-01-04 at 17.01.16.png)
- Ukraine Initiative
Raising the pressure on Putin
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- Ukraine Initiative
Central Bank Sanctions on Russia
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- Central Banking ![](../../../../../../../../../../var/folders/34/zq18d8kx7kbgby0j06p_j6t40000gn/T/TemporaryItems/NSIRD_screencaptureui_EM2XPo/Screenshot 2022-01-04 at 17.01.16.png)
- Financial Markets ![](../../../../../../../../../../var/folders/34/zq18d8kx7kbgby0j06p_j6t40000gn/T/TemporaryItems/NSIRD_screencaptureui_EM2XPo/Screenshot 2022-01-04 at 17.01.16.png)
- Ukraine Initiative
Webinar: A Blueprint for the Reconstruction of Ukraine
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- Ukraine Initiative
All Contributions
Anti-corruption policies in the reconstructing of Ukraine
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- Politics and economics ![](../../../../../../../../../../var/folders/34/zq18d8kx7kbgby0j06p_j6t40000gn/T/TemporaryItems/NSIRD_screencaptureui_EM2XPo/Screenshot 2022-01-04 at 17.01.16.png)
- Ukraine Initiative
Foreign support to Ukraine: Evidence from a database of military, financial, and humanitarian aid
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- Politics and economics ![](../../../../../../../../../../var/folders/34/zq18d8kx7kbgby0j06p_j6t40000gn/T/TemporaryItems/NSIRD_screencaptureui_EM2XPo/Screenshot 2022-01-04 at 17.01.16.png)
- Ukraine Initiative
The peace dividend can be saved in Ukraine
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- Politics and economics
The all-out aggression requires an all-out response
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![](../../../../../../../../../../var/folders/34/zq18d8kx7kbgby0j06p_j6t40000gn/T/TemporaryItems/NSIRD_screencaptureui_EM2XPo/Screenshot 2022-01-04 at 17.01.16.png)
- Energy ![](../../../../../../../../../../var/folders/34/zq18d8kx7kbgby0j06p_j6t40000gn/T/TemporaryItems/NSIRD_screencaptureui_EM2XPo/Screenshot 2022-01-04 at 17.01.16.png)
- Politics and economics
Why it is imperative to help Ukraine
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- Politics and economics ![](../../../../../../../../../../var/folders/34/zq18d8kx7kbgby0j06p_j6t40000gn/T/TemporaryItems/NSIRD_screencaptureui_EM2XPo/Screenshot 2022-01-04 at 17.01.16.png)
- Ukraine Initiative
Ukraine reconstruction: Some insights from Slovak reforms
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- Financial Regulation and Banking ![](../../../../../../../../../../var/folders/34/zq18d8kx7kbgby0j06p_j6t40000gn/T/TemporaryItems/NSIRD_screencaptureui_EM2XPo/Screenshot 2022-01-04 at 17.01.16.png)
- Politics and economics ![](../../../../../../../../../../var/folders/34/zq18d8kx7kbgby0j06p_j6t40000gn/T/TemporaryItems/NSIRD_screencaptureui_EM2XPo/Screenshot 2022-01-04 at 17.01.16.png)
- Ukraine Initiative
The recession in Russia deepens: Evidence from an alternative tracker of domestic economic activity
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- Politics and economics ![](../../../../../../../../../../var/folders/34/zq18d8kx7kbgby0j06p_j6t40000gn/T/TemporaryItems/NSIRD_screencaptureui_EM2XPo/Screenshot 2022-01-04 at 17.01.16.png)
- Ukraine Initiative
Why the West needs Ukraine and its IT business
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- Labour Markets
Why the world needs Ukraine as much as Ukraine needs the world
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![](../../../../../../../../../../var/folders/34/zq18d8kx7kbgby0j06p_j6t40000gn/T/TemporaryItems/NSIRD_screencaptureui_EM2XPo/Screenshot 2022-01-04 at 17.01.16.png)
- Politics and economics
How the war is increasing inequality in Russia
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![](../../../../../../../../../../var/folders/34/zq18d8kx7kbgby0j06p_j6t40000gn/T/TemporaryItems/NSIRD_screencaptureui_EM2XPo/Screenshot 2022-01-04 at 17.01.16.png)
- Poverty and Income Inequality ![](../../../../../../../../../../var/folders/34/zq18d8kx7kbgby0j06p_j6t40000gn/T/TemporaryItems/NSIRD_screencaptureui_EM2XPo/Screenshot 2022-01-04 at 17.01.16.png)
- Ukraine Initiative
Helping Ukraine is not only crucial for peace in Europe but also for world peace
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![](../../../../../../../../../../var/folders/34/zq18d8kx7kbgby0j06p_j6t40000gn/T/TemporaryItems/NSIRD_screencaptureui_EM2XPo/Screenshot 2022-01-04 at 17.01.16.png)
- Politics and economics
Flight from Russia
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- Politics and economics