Blogs&Reviews

  • In this follow up to his post on ergodicity, Roger Farmer discusses chaos theory, 'spin glasses', and what it means to have rational expectations.

  • How the broadcast media created mediamacro

    Simon Wren-Lewis, 20 June 2018

    The Brexit debate was not the first time that the broadcast media in the UK reinforced rather than countered the claims of the right-wing press – the same happened with austerity. In this post, Simon Wren-Lewis asks why the BBC and other broadcasters largely ignored standard textbook macroeconomics, and instead promoted ‘mediamacro’.

  • Trump, China, and tariffs: From soybeans to semiconductors

    Chad Bown, Euijin Jung, Zhiyao (Lucy) Lu, 19 June 2018

    On 15 June, the Trump administration produced the list of specific Chinese products on which it soon plans to impose tariffs. In this post, Chad Bown, Euijin Jung and Zhiyao Lu examine this list and China's proposed retaliation, and argue that even companies that are not suffering yet from China’s mistreatment will soon be hurting because of tariff-induced higher costs.

  • A 2018 Equality and Human Rights Commission report predicts a dramatic rise in child poverty. Jonathan Portes, a co-authorof the report, challenges Christopher Snowdon, a scepticof such gloomy predictions, to a bet to see who is right.

Other Recent Blogs&Reviews:

  • Simon Wren-Lewis, 30 May 2018

    Macroeconomics gave up on trying to explain recent macroeconomic history, or, why the economy did what it did over the last 30 or 40 years. In this post, Simon Wren-Lewis argues that it is time that macroeconomics revisited the decisions it made around 1980, and realise that the deficiencies with traditional time series analysis were not as great as they were made out to be.

  • Jon Danielsson, 30 May 2018

    Volatility is only a good measure of risk when shocks are distributed normally. This post argues that extreme value theory offers a better, if imperfect alternative. Even better would be to use more fundamental analysis.  

  • Thorsten Beck, 29 May 2018

    The main tension between London and Brussels seems to stem from a fundamentally different approach: for the UK government, Brexit is a political process; for the European Commission, a legal-administrative process. Thorsten Beck reviews the current situation and concludes that the political class in the UK has failed its population.

  • Roger Farmer, 29 May 2018

    So-called experts make predictions about prospects for UK after Brexit as if we can plan for the future using known statistical probabilities, but no one knows what the consequences will be relative to staying in the EU in 15 years’ time. The one thing that will get us into trouble, though, is being ‘sure’ about predictions that might be plain wrong.

  • Simon Wren-Lewis, 28 May 2018

    Voters for 'Leave' wanted a Brexit that delivered more money for public services, but that cannot be realised under any of the four possible Brexit scenarios on the table. Economics matters to voters, more so than issues of sovereignty or immigration, and this post argues that Leave voters were misled with mythical economic gains.

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